Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
ON AND OFF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION NOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CUTTING THROUGH NORTHWEST
OHIO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST.
IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THESE STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.

THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MOST MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WILL REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND 12Z. EXPECT
THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS IN THE MID-80S AND LOW 90S...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS SEVERAL OF OUR COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES...IN AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL STILL A
POSSIBILITY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SHOULD DECREASE
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

EXPECT FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT....WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE OH VALLEY EXTENDS INTO WV
STAYING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
SFC LOW LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OH
VALLEY THURSDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NAM AND SREF MODELS BRING THE
BULK OF QPF THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS LAGS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE
BRINGING THE PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...SPC
HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ON THURSDAY WITH
SFC CAPE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.9 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CODED LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO THE
NAM/SREF SOLUTION SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WEDNESDAY...BUT LESS WARMER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE SREF GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO EASY WAY TO FIGURE OUT POPS SO A MORE BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH WILL BE USED.

THE MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY.

LINE OF CONVECTION GETTING ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. CANNOT
ONLY TRACK THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS FOR TIMING TO THE
TERMINALS...BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
COMING HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CMH/CVG LINE...AND IS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF CONVECTION.

STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS...AND COVERED
THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS OF MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS.

TIMING IS THE KEY ISSUE AGAIN...WAITING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO GET
GOING AND ORGANIZED. TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MOVING INTO TERMINALS AND VICINITY
ARE DEEMED SEVERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS
LIKELY.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-241745-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-241745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084-231900-
VINTON-MORGAN-WASHINGTON-ATHENS-JACKSON-PERRY-
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PERRY...
VINTON...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...MORGAN...NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
ATHENS COUNTIES...

AT 219 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCONNELSVILLE TO NEAR
CHILLICOTHE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...NELSONVILLE...GLOUSTER...MCCONNELSVILLE...MCARTHUR...
BEVERLY...SHAWNEE...CHESTERHILL...LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...CHAUNCEY...
HAMDEN...NEW STRAITSVILLE...MALTA...CORNING...BUCHTEL...LOWELL...
STOCKPORT...JACKSONVILLE...MURRAY CITY AND TRIMBLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

LAT...LON 3976 8165 3967 8164 3966 8159 3959 8158
      3958 8148 3965 8145 3959 8135 3957 8104
      3907 8279 3937 8275 3937 8252 3940 8251
      3939 8229 3947 8228 3947 8217 3955 8216
      3960 8237 3964 8238 3977 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 306DEG 27KT 3977 8173 3942 8300

12