Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
522 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW SWINGS THRU THIS
EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. DRIER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WARMER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORMS FIRING AS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROF AXIS.
STORMS INTO PERRY COUNTY BY 19Z...MOVING ESE AROUND 35 KNOTS.

HOPING ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITH MID LEVEL TROF PASSING
AROUND 00Z...THAT THE VEERING FLOW AND STEERING CURRENT PREVENTS
ANY ESE TO WNW TRAINING...AND PUSHES THE MAIN LINE QUICKLY ESE.
CAN HANDLE 0.50 TO .75 OF RAIN IN THE WET COUNTIES...IF WE CAN GET
THE MAIN LINE PASS AFTER REACHING THAT PCPN RANGE. THE LOWERING
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY BE AT THE PRICE OF WIND/HAIL. THE WIND
AND HAIL THREAT IS GREATER TODAY...WITH MORE AVAILABLE CAPE.

A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT.  HAVE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
AND LINGERING 12Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WV
MOUNTAINS.  FIGURING DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE IN ANY BIG HURRY
TO LOWER IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...DUE TO WET VEGETATION.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
FLOW...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EITHER JUST SOME CU...OR -SHRA
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AREA WILL STAY DRY ON FRIDAY...BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER
ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM/HOT WITH MID 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ESE AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS THROUGH
MOST TAF SITES MOSTLY 1930Z TO 23Z. LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. BRIEF IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. WIND GUSTS
OF 40 KNOTS EASILY POSSIBLE.

DEVELOPING STRATUS NR 1 THSD FT 03Z TO 06Z...THEN LINGERING IN WV
12Z TO 15Z BEFORE LIFTING. FIGURING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE STRATUS
SHOULD PREVENT THICK FOG DEVELOPING. ANY FOG SHOULD BE TEMPORARILY
AND RAIN INDUCED IN THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND TIMING OF LOWER POST FRONTAL STRATUS
COULD VARY.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...AND
MAYBE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
WE ARE MOST CONCERN ABOUT THE COAL RIVER...IF IT GETS HIT AGAIN LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SINCE CREST FROM JUST THE RAIN LAST
NIGHT WOULD BE 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. HOPING THE SHOT OF RAIN IS
QUICK AND WITH BASIN AREA AMOUNTS AOB 0.75 INCHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-
037>040-046-047-151700-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033>036-151700-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-
1251 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
641 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW GALLIPOLIS        38.84N  82.26W
07/14/2015                   GALLIA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS MITCHELL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501713

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
642 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE GALLIPOLIS        38.87N  82.16W
07/14/2015                   GALLIA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON MYRTLE AVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501714

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
644 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEDRO                   38.63N  82.67W
07/14/2015                   LAWRENCE           OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG TOWNSHIP RD. 150

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501715

ARB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
651 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JACKSON                 39.05N  82.63W
07/14/2015                   JACKSON            OH   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER OVER SEVERAL ROADS IN TOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501718

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
654 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GALLIPOLIS              38.82N  82.19W
07/14/2015                   GALLIA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS AROUND TOWN UNDER WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501719

ARB