Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Raleigh, NC

751 
WWUS52 KRAH 252057
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
457 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCC063-135-252130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-150625T2130Z/
ORANGE NC-DURHAM NC-
457 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTIES...

AT 456 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...HILLSBOROUGH...CARRBORO...SCHLEY...ENO RIVER
STATE PARK...EFLAND AND LAKE JORDAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS INJURIES... 
DEATHS...AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PROPERTY DAMAGE EACH YEAR... 
TYPICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH FALLING TREES OR TREE BRANCHES. IF 
OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE 
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD 
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED 
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 7883 3587 7894 3586 7908 3587 7913
      3613 7926 3618 7918 3618 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 320DEG 11KT 3605 7908 

$$

26

262 
WWUS52 KRAH 252108
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
508 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCC063-135-252130-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-150625T2130Z/
ORANGE NC-DURHAM NC-
508 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR ORANGE AND SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTIES...

AT 505 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER HILLSBOROUGH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...HILLSBOROUGH...CARRBORO...SCHLEY...ENO RIVER
STATE PARK...EFLAND AND LAKE JORDAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE 
ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH 
FLOODED ROADWAYS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF 
NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU 
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 
OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 7883 3587 7894 3586 7908 3587 7913
      3613 7926 3618 7918 3618 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 317DEG 8KT 3605 7907 

$$

26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES IS
PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING BUT WHILE THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
BUILDING ALONG A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
FORCING AT THE MOMENT TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY FOR TOO LONG. THEREFORE
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...FORCING WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE NORTH AS A WAVE MOVES DOWN OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE NE PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KTS...AND
HELICITY ON THE RISE AS WELL...CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 03Z. THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO SPINUP ALONG THE LINE. AS A RESULT OF
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS EXTENDING AN AREA OF ENHANCED RISK DOWN ACROSS
HALIFAX...WARREN...AND VANCE COUNTIES WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK
ELSEWHERE.

SOME MITIGATING FACTORS AGAINST POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDE THE
LATER TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REACHING NC WHICH WILL BE WELL AFTER
PEAK HEATING CONCLUDES. IN ADDITION A CAP IS EXPECTED TO FORM WHICH
WOULD CUT OFF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY..BUT COULD STILL SUSTAIN
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MOST LIKELY
FOR POINTS EAST OF OUR CWA. WOULD EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO
CLEAR THE AREA BY 9Z.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...

THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND
WITH SOME BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD...PRECIP SHOULD
BE AT A MINIMUM DURING THE DAY (COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS). HOWEVER...
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES DURING
THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH GETS CLOSER...THEREFORE A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY (LIKELY OUR LAST FOR THIS
CURRENT HEAT WAVE)...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING A HEAT ADVISORY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AS A
RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KNOTS. MORE UNCERTAIN WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
SINCE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING...THUS LIMITING
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. REGARDLESS...MODELS PROG MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION AND SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SOME BY
THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOSTLY MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPS ACTUALLY BEING BELOW NORMAL. LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL SET UP
OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH IT BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS SET
UP...ANY SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE...WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION
BUT IN GENERAL...KRWI AND KFAY WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD END UP
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO A MORE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT KRWI BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM: THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS IN THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
AREA EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

          REC
DAY       MAX    YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25     100   1952
06/26     102   1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25     101   1914
06/26     102   1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25     102   1914
06/26     101   1951

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
408 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCZ021>025-038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089-262015-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
408 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-026>028-043-262015-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-
408 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
146 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW COLERIDGE         35.64N  79.61W
06/25/2015                   RANDOLPH           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE FELL ON A HOUSE KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES ON LANES
            MILL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1500747

KRD