Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Raleigh, NC

050 
WGUS72 KRAH 250948
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCC037-151-251130-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-150625T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHATHAM NC-RANDOLPH NC-
548 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM EDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL CHATHAM AND EAST CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

AT 543 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE 
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 22 NEAR EDWARDS FARM ROAD.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SILER 
CITY...RAMSEUR... FRANKLINVILLE...HASTY AND COLERIDGE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO 
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. MANY 
ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS IN THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD. WHEN 
ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 7940 3562 7983 3578 7984 3579 7950
      3577 7940

$$

77

163 
WGUS72 KRAH 251129
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
729 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCC037-151-251138-
/O.EXP.KRAH.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-150625T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHATHAM NC-RANDOLPH NC-
729 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CHATHAM AND EAST CENTRAL
RANDOLPH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 AM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED 
TO POSE A THREAT. 

LAT...LON 3564 7940 3562 7983 3578 7984 3579 7950
      3577 7940

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
420 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WHILE RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SC BORDER...AND VERY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TRIAD
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY UPPER SUPPORT FROM WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR DID SHOW THE TRIAD SHOWERS AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY
WILL CONTINUE OR PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TRIAD DURING
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SHORT WAVE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
NORTH AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SC
BORDER MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO OUR CWA...BUT LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY
SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AS MUCH AS 2000J/KG
OF SBCAPE ALONG WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS. WITH SHEAR VALUES
THAT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH.  WITH THE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO OUR NORTH...LOOK FOR TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STORM AND
CLOUD COVERAGE LIKELY INFLUENCING OUR TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY WITH H.I. VALUES PROJECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
CRITERIA.

THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS
THANKS IN PART TO ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON...AND RENEWED
ACTIVITY AS A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES SE AND
CROSSES THE VA/NC BORDER. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS...IN
ADDITION TO WIND AND HAIL THREATS...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.  LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER/TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...BUT
THE RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND AT NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST A
RENEWED THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 MAY WARRANT HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY WILL MOVE
EAST...MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE
EAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
EXITS TO OUR NE...WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A COOLER TREND AND DRYING FROM
THE WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS ON
SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 80S.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
CAROLINAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TUE AND AGAIN
ON WED.  TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THE SURFACE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THE RATHER WARM AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUED REMNANT OUTFLOWS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
COMBINED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS REMAINS LOW.
THUS... WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THIS
MORNING.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...
WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... FOR NOW HAVE JUST ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO
KRDU/KRWI/FAY FOR STORMS IN THE 17/18Z TO 23/00Z TIME FRAME. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STRONG WINDS
GUSTS... HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

LONG TERM: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND THUS SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. ADVERSE CONDITIONS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY RETURNING TO VFR
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...

          REC
DAY       MAX    YR
RDU RECORDS
06/25     100   1952
06/26     102   1952
GSO RECORDS
06/25     101   1914
06/26     102   1914
FAY RECORDS
06/25     102   1914
06/26     101   1951

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...77/ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-260000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
746 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

NCZ085-250330-
SCOTLAND NC-
1036 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SCOTLAND
COUNTY UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1035 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAURINBURG...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURINBURG...GIBSON...EAST LAURINBURG AND LAUREL HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.MINOR FLOODING

&&

LAT...LON 3478 7965 3484 7959 3475 7940 3464 7945
      3463 7946 3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 030DEG 5KT 3474 7955

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCZ038-039-250815-
RANDOLPH NC-DAVIDSON NC-
335 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL RANDOLPH AND CENTRAL DAVIDSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM EDT...

AT 331 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
TRAINING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LINWOOD TO NEAR ASHEBORO...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHEBORO...LEXINGTON...NORTH CAROLINA ZOO...LINWOOD...HIGH ROCK
LAKE...RAMSEUR...DENTON...FRANKLINVILLE...GORDONTOWN AND ULAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8037 3578 7955 3559 7955 3565 8030
      3569 8034 3572 8033 3572 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 272DEG 26KT 3576 8029 3571 7975

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
412 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCZ039-040-250900-
RANDOLPH NC-CHATHAM NC-
412 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
RANDOLPH AND WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM EDT...

AT 411 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF SILER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HEAVY RAIN.... WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SILER CITY...GOLDSTON...RAMSEUR...FRANKLINVILLE...STALEY...HASTY AND
COLERIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 7970 3581 7968 3583 7921 3558 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 279DEG 16KT 3571 7959

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
425 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCZ073-074-083-084-250930-
RICHMOND NC-ANSON NC-MONTGOMERY NC-STANLY NC-
425 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF RICHMOND...
EASTERN ANSON...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN STANLY
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM EDT...

AT 425 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ANSONVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALLACE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL... WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH... HEAVY RAIN... AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...NORWOOD...MOUNT GILEAD...ELLERBE...DOBBINS
HEIGHTS...LILESVILLE...MORVEN...MCFARLAN AND DIGGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7999 3525 8012 3526 8010 3531 7979
      3490 7964 3480 7969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 235DEG 8KT 3516 8002 3483 7992

77