Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE IS SPURRING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LINE HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND EXIT
THE CWA BY MID-EVENING. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE TEMPERATURES HAVE
GOTTEN INTO THE MID 90S BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE REALLY COME DOWN IN THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE. THEREFORE HEAT INDICES OF 100-104 HAVE
ARE ONLY STILL PREVALENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LATE THIS
EVENING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SHOW A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS IN THE TRIAD BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD
BE A DRY NIGHT ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW 70S. WITH A LOT OF LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...

WITH NO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...IT SHOULD BE A QUIETER DAY CONVECTIVELY AS MODELS ONLY HINT
AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST PROBLEM
OF THE DAY WILL BE HEAT INDICES AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES OF CLOSE TO THE 105 DEGREE
CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE THAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S.
IF THIS HAPPENS...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT IF ONE WERE TO BE PUT OUT LATER
ON IT WOULD BE FOR MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. LOWS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MON: HOT WITH LOWER-THAN-USUAL (FOR SUMMERTIME) STORM CHANCES. WE
REMAIN BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW... ON THE NE SIDE OF THE
SPRAWLING RIDGE FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY... BUT THIS FLOW IS VERY LIGHT OVER NC WITH THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL WINDS AND DIFFLUENCE WELL TO OUR NW. A PROMINENT PERTURBATION
CROSSING KS/NRN/MO/IL/OH VALLEY INTO MON EVENING MAY HELP BUILD
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER NC MUCH OF THE DAY... AND
ACCORDINGLY THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING LITTLE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY
WITH NC MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG EVEN AT PEAK
HEATING... ALONG WITH SUB-20 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... AND A WARM 500-
300 MB LAYER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN... AND THIS AREA WITH ITS HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY SEE A
BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION... BUT STILL MEAGER GIVEN
THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMIC OR THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. ANYTHING THAT
CAN GET GOING MAY GENERATE ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS GIVEN THE INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDING APPEARANCE AND DCAPE NEARING 1000 J/KG. WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT 15-30% AT MOST... HIGHEST EAST OF I-95. OUR LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (BY 15-20 M)... WITH THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IDEAL LOCATION
FOR ATYPICALLY HOT TEMPS IN NC. FOLLOWING THIS AND WITH THE WARMING
TREND OF GUIDANCE... EXPECT HIGHS OF 95-100... A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 103-104 DEGREES
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST... ALTHOUGH IF DEWPOINTS DON'T SLIP INTO THE
UPPER 60S WITH MIXING... READINGS COULD HIT 105 BRIEFLY. WE MAY SEE
ISOLATED DYING SHOWERS SPILLING OVER FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN MON
NIGHT. WARM LOWS OF 71-76.

TUE: CONTINUE HOT WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES THAN MON. STILL
ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BUT WILL PROBABLY BE MUTED FROM
MONDAY'S READINGS BY UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD... TRIMMING HEATING A BIT... SO EXPECT TUE HIGHS TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN MONDAY'S... DESPITE THICKNESSES COMPARABLE
TO THOSE EXPECTED MONDAY. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
103-104 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. PROJECTED MUCAPE TUE IS STILL
UNIMPRESSIVE... JUST 750-1500 J/KG... WITH MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF AROUND 20 KTS. BUT DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE ON THE UPSWING AS THE
MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST... PROVIDING SLIGHT DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ESPECIALLY LATE
TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT... IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE NW. WILL TOP OUT POPS AT 30-40%... ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY RISE IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN.

WED-SAT: MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT FOR SE SECTIONS) WILL BE IN A
RELATIVE LULL CONVECTION-WISE AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE OVER SRN/ERN NC WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NW. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WED
WHERE PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL... HOWEVER DRIER AIR
ELSEWHERE SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WED.
CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO RISE THU AND PEAK FRI... AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ESE INTO THE MIDATLANTIC REGION... INTO THE
MEAN TROUGH BASE... WITH A NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE INITIALLY LOWER PW VALUES CLIMB BACK UP CLOSE TO 2.0
INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH HALF FRI... AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
FRONT SHOULD THEN SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE NC... USHERING IN A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO START THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUGGEST
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WED... A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER BUT
STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THU... THEN NEAR NORMAL FRI/SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING OVER KRDU AT THIS
TIME AND WILL BE APPROACHING KRWI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER. TO THE SOUTH...MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
THE VICINITY OF KFAY BY 20Z OR SO. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS BUT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL SEE
WIND GUSTS REMAIN UNDER 30 KTS. BEHIND THE LINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRIEFLY GO NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT...SOME VFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVE IN THE
AREA...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS THAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
WHICH COULD PRESENT SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-190930-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-190930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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