Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Raleigh, NC

581 
WWUS52 KRAH 181802
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

NCC063-181812-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-150718T1830Z/
DURHAM NC-
202 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DURHAM COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3617 7850 3608 7854 3602 7855 3586 7874
      3587 7883 3593 7880 3592 7876 3594 7873
      3601 7870 3602 7873 3603 7875 3607 7875
      3607 7878 3609 7881 3628 7866 3630 7857
      3630 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 304DEG 23KT 3626 7863 3600 7890 

$$

NCC077-183-181830-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-150718T1830Z/
GRANVILLE NC-WAKE NC-
202 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN GRANVILLE AND NORTH CENTRAL WAKE COUNTIES...

AT 202 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
OXFORD TO DURHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...OXFORD...CREEDMOOR...BUTNER...RDU INTERNATIONAL...STEM...
FALLS LAKE STATE REC AREA...WILLIAM B UMSTEAD STATE PARK...PURNELL
AND FALLS LAKE BOAT RAMP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.  MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 7850 3608 7854 3602 7855 3586 7874
      3587 7883 3593 7880 3592 7876 3594 7873
      3601 7870 3602 7873 3603 7875 3607 7875
      3607 7878 3609 7881 3628 7866 3630 7857
      3630 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 304DEG 23KT 3626 7863 3600 7890 

$$

ELLIS

914 
WWUS52 KRAH 181826
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
226 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

NCC077-183-181836-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-150718T1830Z/
GRANVILLE NC-WAKE NC-
226 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GRANVILLE AND NORTH
CENTRAL WAKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM EDT...
    
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3617 7850 3608 7854 3602 7855 3586 7874
      3587 7883 3593 7880 3592 7876 3594 7873
      3601 7870 3602 7873 3603 7875 3607 7875
      3607 7878 3609 7881 3628 7866 3630 7857
      3630 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 304DEG 23KT 3626 7863 3600 7890 

$$

ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

EARLIER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD HAS ALL BUT
DIMINISHED THIS HOUR WITH A BAD OF CLOUDS REMAINING FROM THE
FOOTHILLS...JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT. NOT A LOT OF
ENHANCEMENT ON THE VISIBLE PICTURE AT THIS TIME AND THE HRRR HAS
BACKED OFF ON ALL PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 17Z WHEN TEMPERATURES
RISE ENOUGH TO START GETTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
BUT THEN A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE TRIAD AFTER 18Z COULD
BEGIN TO ORGANIZE STORMS A LITTLE MORE. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WOULD
EXPECT SOME KIND OF LINEAR MULTICELLULAR FEATURE WHICH WILL WORK
THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM 500 MB
VORTICITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AREA MID AFTERNOON AND THE I-
95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS

HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT
OF DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HAVE
LOWERED PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO... GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY... ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXPECTED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY: ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND/OR DISSIPATE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING... WITH MID LEVEL FEATURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARM AGAIN FOR TONIGHT... WITH
LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY... WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EXTENDING EASTWARD RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT
TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THIS COUPLED
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES THAN
TODAYS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING 100 ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL PRODUCE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
FACTORS FOR CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES VARY BETWEEN
1440S TO AROUND 1450M IN THE AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...HEAT INDICES 102-106 WILL BE
COMMON WITH A HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLY WARRANTED...MAINLY IN THE
SANDHILLS AND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

THE SUB-TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT-MODERATE INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE NO WORSE THAN 20-25
PERCENT AT ITS PEAK. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDITIONS
AS ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX IN THE NW FLOW WOULD LEAD TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION. EXPECT RATHER STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL DEEPEN A L/W
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC...INDUCING NWLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SEND DISTURBANCES INTO OUR REGION AND
AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES DIFFICULT AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS USUALLY A LITTLE
TARDY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
REGION...FAVORING TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT
ON TIMING OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND EXTENT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
UPSTREAM. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER
THAN MONDAY'S MAX TEMPS OVER THE NW THIRD WITH COMPARABLE TEMPS
ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY'S UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
PROJECTED TO LIE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD. THIS SET-UP CHANGES LITTLE ON THURSDAY. THIS SUGGEST HOT
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE POP MOST LOCALES FRIDAY AND TEMPS
REMAINING A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY KGSO/KINT/KRDU). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT NOW
APPEARS THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST FASHION... WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
TRIAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON... TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (KFAY). ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY END BY MID EVENING... WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT... ALONG WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG.

LOOKING AHEAD: WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...A RELATIVELY ENERGETIC SUMMER-TIME PATTERN IN
WHICH DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL POSE THE GREATEST CONCERN TO AVIATION.
NON-DIURNAL (I.E. OVERNIGHT) CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
PRESENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT...I.E. IF UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS (MCS'S) PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. MORNING STRATUS AND/OR
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN SEASONABLE MOISTURE...
PERIODS OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION... AND THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-190930-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-190930-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON...BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1252 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

NCZ007-008-024-025-181800-
PERSON NC-DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-
1252 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF PERSON...DURHAM...ORANGE AND GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...

AT 1252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PROSPECT HILL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...OXFORD...ROXBORO...HILLSBOROUGH...CREEDMOOR...
CARRBORO...BUTNER...ROUGEMONT AND CONCORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7846 3653 7847 3651 7850 3646 7851
      3617 7850 3608 7854 3602 7855 3608 7869
      3607 7875 3603 7875 3601 7870 3598 7871
      3592 7876 3592 7881 3587 7883 3586 7908
      3588 7925 3624 7926 3624 7915 3654 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 302DEG 15KT 3626 7913

ELLIS