Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
333 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY BE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING A THREAT...THERE COULD
ALSO BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-241800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1152 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A PUEBLO TO KIM LINE. HAIL LARGER THAN ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER...LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY STORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. RUNOFF FROM
STORMS COULD ALSO LEAD TO FURTHER RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...CLEARING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT.  PEA SIZE HAIL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.  IN ADDITION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ON
AREA PEAKS...GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FEET...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME AS SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
DRIER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

28/28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
628 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

COZ085-086-240200-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
628 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO AND
SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 627 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR PUEBLO WEST...OR NEAR PUEBLO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PUEBLO...PUEBLO WEST...HANOVER...PINON...SALT CREEK...PUEBLO
RESERVOIR...PUEBLO DEPOT AND MIDWAY.

LAT...LON 3821 10462 3831 10481 3878 10445 3853 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 217DEG 12KT 3833 10466

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
646 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             5 ENE PUEBLO WEST       38.38N 104.64W
05/23/2015  M0.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
749 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             2 NE PUEBLO             38.30N 104.59W
05/23/2015  M1.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
759 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 NNE PUEBLO            38.31N 104.59W
05/23/2015  E1.25 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
832 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

COZ089-093>098-240400-
CROWLEY COUNTY CO-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY CO-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
832 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CROWLEY...KIOWA...
NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS...OTERO...PROWERS AND BENT COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM MDT...

AT 827 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OVER CHERAW...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF LA JUNTA.  ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS WERE 7 MILES TO THE EAST OF SUGAR CITY AND NEAR LA
JUNTA.  THESE STRONG STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LAMAR...LA JUNTA...ROCKY FORD...LAS
ANIMAS...ORDWAY...HOLLY...SWINK...EADS...GRANADA...WILEY...SUGAR
CITY...CHERAW...SHERIDAN LAKE...HARTMAN...HASWELL...MCLAVE...
NEEGRONDA RESERVOIR...TOWNER AND BRISTOL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3764 10380 3852 10377 3853 10317 3861 10317
      3861 10205 3765 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 241DEG 31KT 3811 10351