River Flood Warning 24, NWS Pueblo, CO

843 
WGUS85 KPUB 290048
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
648 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High water levels continue along the Arkansas River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-291248-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0230Z.150529T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
648 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:15 PM Thursday the stage was 6.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early this evening and 
  continue to rise to near 7.2 feet by after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-291248-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
648 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:15 PM Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.9 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

264 
WGUS85 KPUB 290512
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High water levels continue along the Arkansas River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-291712-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150529T0600Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1112 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Thursday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.2 feet by after
  midnight tonight then begin falling.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-291712-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1112 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Thursday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.9 feet by 
  midmorning Friday then begin falling.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

560 
WGUS85 KPUB 290718
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
118 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High water levels continue along the Arkansas River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-291918-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150529T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
118 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:15 AM Friday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.1 feet by 
  midmorning tomorrow then begin falling.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-291918-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
118 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 12:15 AM Friday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 11.5 feet 
  by midmorning tomorrow.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

583 
WGUS85 KPUB 291330
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
730 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.High water levels continue along the Arkansas River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-300130-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150529T1115Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
730 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Friday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.1 feet by early
  this afternoon. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-300130-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
730 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until further notice...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Friday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain near 11.9 feet.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

537 
WGUS85 KPUB 300135
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
735 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Upstream water releases from Pueblo Reservoir are expected to be
decreased over the weekend...allowing river levels to fall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-301335-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150530T1800Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150529T1115Z.150530T0600Z.UU/
735 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Saturday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to stay near flood stage until
  after midnight tonight...then start to fall.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-301335-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150601T1800Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.150601T0600Z.UU/
735 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Monday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Friday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast
  to continue until after midnight Monday morning.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage  
  after midnight Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

319 
WGUS85 KPUB 300943
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Heavy rain from thunderstorms over the past few days will 
continue to cause rivers to run high.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-302143-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150531T0000Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150529T1115Z.150530T1200Z.UU/
343 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until this evening...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 AM Saturday the stage was 7.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  midmorning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-302143-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150601T1800Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.150601T0600Z.UU/
343 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Monday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 AM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  after midnight Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

995 
WGUS85 KPUB 301404
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
804 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Recent heavy rains along the Arkansas River basin will keep water
levels running high.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-310204-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150531T2230Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150530T1800Z.150531T1030Z.UU/
804 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Sunday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Saturday the stage was 7.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.7 feet by early
  this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-310204-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150602T1800Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.150602T0600Z.UU/
804 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Tuesday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:15 AM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11.6 feet by 
  after midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage after
  midnight Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

261 
WGUS85 KPUB 302207
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
407 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Recent heavy rains along the Arkansas River basin will keep water
levels running high. Upstream releases from Pueblo Reservoir are
expected to allow levels to fall...with Avondale falling to below
flood stage Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-311007-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150531T1200Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150530T1500Z.150531T0000Z.UU/
407 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* until Sunday morning...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 PM Saturday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage  
  Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-311007-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150602T0300Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.150601T1500Z.UU/
407 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Monday evening...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  3:15 PM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage  
  late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

951 
WGUS85 KPUB 310037
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
637 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River Near Avondale affecting Pueblo County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Colorado...

  Arkansas River At La Junta affecting Otero County.

.Water levels have dropped below minor flood stage along the
Arkansas River near Avondale and no future rises above flood
stage are currently anticipated.  Consequently, the Flood
Warning for this part of the Arkansas River as been cancelled.

Water levels are expected to remain above minor flood stage
for a couple more days along the Arkansas River near La Junta.
Consequently, the Flood Warning for this part of the Arkansas
River remains in effect at this time.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message... 

Stay away from the banks of rivers and streams. During a flood...
saturated banks can easily break off and fall into potentially 
deadly...fast flowing flood water. 

Stay tuned to your National Weather Service in Pueblo for the latest 
information. For the latest hydrologic forecasts and warnings...visit
the National Weather Service in Pueblo at weather.gov/pueblo. You can
link directly to the hydrology page by clicking on Rivers and Lakes 
under the Hydrology section of the left hand menu bar. 

&&

COC101-310107-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150531T1200Z/
/ADLC2.1.ER.150529T0348Z.150530T1500Z.150530T2252Z.UU/
637 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Arkansas River Near Avondale.
* At  6:15 PM Saturday the stage was 6.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  4:52 PM Saturday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.2 feet by 
  midmorning Monday.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...Minor overbank flow into low spots along the 
  river occurs near Avondale.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10441 3829 10434 3827 10425 3820 10425
      3822 10434 3822 10441       

$$

COC089-311237-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150602T0300Z/
/LXHC2.2.ER.150520T1637Z.150522T0430Z.150601T1500Z.UU/
637 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Arkansas River At La Junta.
* until Monday evening...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:15 PM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor agricultural flooding occurs.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10356 3808 10341 3812 10321 3805 10321
      3802 10337 3798 10361       

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS HAS PUSHED WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST CO WITH DEW POINTS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 50S.
WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...AND AM WATCHING PORTIONS OF
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE LATEST FOG PRODUCT
INDICATES SOME LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WHERE SE UPSLOPE WINDS ARE IMPINGING ON THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE.  KLIC HAS SEEN LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING UNDER
THIS SAME AREA OF STRATUS...BUT THERE IS ALSO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT CLOSER TO THE MTS...SO IF STRATUS
DOES MAKE A PUSH WESTWARD INTO KCOS...DON'T THINK IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OR LAST VERY LONG.

FOR TODAY...UPPER TROF ACROSS ID/NRN UT WILL MOVE INTO NW CO BY 00Z
FRI WITH A WEAKER IMPULSE ACROSS WRN CO EJECTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CO
DURING THE EARLY AFTN AHEAD OF THE TROF.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS WRN CO OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BRING AN EARLIER START TO CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT SFC WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL HELP MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS A DRY LINE TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  IF DEW POINTS CAN STAY IN THE 50S
AS 00Z NAM SUGGESTED...THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CAPE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH VALUES OF 2000+J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTN.
CONCEPTUALLY IF SFC WINDS CAN STAY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF
THE DRY LINE...THEN DEEP LAYER SHEARS COULD BE RUNNING AROUND 30-40
KTS...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS IS THE
DRIEST MODEL PUSHING 40 DEW POINTS INTO WRN KS BY 00Z FRI.  VARIOUS
HIGH RES MODELS RUN THE GAMUT IN BETWEEN THE MOISTER NAM12 AND THE
DRIER GFS RUN...AND 06Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE DRIER
GFS WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S BY 21Z. HUNCH IS WITH
LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THAT SFC
WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL
KEEP DEEP LAYER SHEARS AROUND 30 KTS OR LESS. HOWEVER WITH INITIAL
DEW POINTS RUNNING SO HIGH...STILL THINK THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF
KIOWA...PROWERS...BACA...AND BENT COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN
INITIATE EARLY ENOUGH. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THREAT
AREA TO SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT...STILL THINK THAT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE KS BORDER.  IF SFC WINDS CAN STAY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...THEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT PARAMETERS FOR
THIS APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S...WITH EVEN A FEW 20 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS BY AFTN.  THIS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT AVAILABLE CAPE AND
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS...AND IF ONE OF THESE
IMPACTS BURN SCARS...THEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON THE RELATIVELY LOW SIDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH.

FRONT MAKES A PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CO DURING THE EVENING...AND
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  LOOKS LIKE LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO KS/OK...SO THIS
WILL KEEP FOCUS AREA FOR ANY MCS ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE SE PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY
ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DROP INTO NRN CO. SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 12000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM MODELS ON PLACEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH IN
TURN HAS A BIG IMPACT ON EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE NAM HAS THE COLD FRONT DRIVING DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS STILL INDICATES MORE OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT BY 18Z FRI. THE END RESULT IS THAT THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON
PCPN DEVELOPING UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE DRY AS
COMPARED TO THE GFS. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A BIT MORE WARMING COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS...SO LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS WARMER MAX
TEMPS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO MODELS...WITH A LITTLE
HELP FROM HI RES MODELS AS WELL. WENT WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH ACTIVITY AT THE MAX BETWEEN 21Z
AND 06Z. WARMED MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS...60S AND
70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS A CONCERN
DUE TO THE HEAVILY SATURATED GROUND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF SAT MORNING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...AND THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
MT CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
AFTER A COOLER DAY ON SAT...LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST BY
TUE AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE PAC NW. LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF
COLORADO...WITH THE END RESULT BEING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS ON TAP. THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK WILL
TRANSLATE TO ISOLATED MT ACTIVITY AT BEST...AND MAX TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 80S. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS 17-18Z WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 19-20Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
20Z ACROSS KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES WHERE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

TSRA WILL THEN DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS. A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...AND MAY BRING SOME PATCHY STRATUS TO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS NEAR THE KS BORDER TOWARDS MORNING.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING
17Z-18Z FRI...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-291745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1134 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AT MIDDAY WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL OVER 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. SHOULD A STRONGER
STORM IMPACT THE BURN SCARS OR AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO KANSAS.  HOWEVER
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS COLORADO. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT WITH ANY OF THE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
MEANWHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 12000 FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MAINLY TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS MORE RAIN RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL RUN-OFF. PLEASE
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN AND NEAR WATER WAYS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS BANKS ARE UNSTABLE AND FAST FLOWS CAN BE DANGEROUS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

10/88

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1254 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

COZ094-097-099-281930-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
1254 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1252 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT LIVED ROPE TORNADO OCCURRING WITH THIS LINE
OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
 EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY INTO WESTERN BACA COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3702 10362 3773 10306 3784 10276 3702 10319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 239DEG 15KT 3752 10318

HODANISH