Alert archive / Idaho / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Pocatello, ID

July 15, 2015Caribou County, Idaho

NWS Pocatello, ID issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2015, 5:43 PM MDT for Caribou County, Idaho. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2015, 5:43 PM MDT (23:43 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2015, 6:15 PM MDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Pocatello, ID
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Caribou County, ID

The radar

The Pocatello radar (KSFX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Riverton, WY (KRIW), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -302 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2182 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

862 
WUUS55 KPIH 152343
SVRPIH
IDC029-160015-
/O.NEW.KPIH.SV.W.0065.150715T2343Z-150716T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
543 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...

* UNTIL 615 PM MDT

* AT 542 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. THIS STORM WAS 
  LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STAR VALLEY REST AREA...OR 11 MILES 
  SOUTHWEST OF THAYNE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SMOKEY CANYON MINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 11124 4287 11121 4283 11104 4268 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 283DEG 21KT 4279 11116 

$$

JKEYES

1 follow-up statement

823 
WWUS55 KPIH 160009
SVSPIH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
609 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

IDC029-160018-
/O.EXP.KPIH.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-150716T0015Z/
CARIBOU ID-
609 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CARIBOU COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM MDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED INTO 
WESTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
OTHER STORMS IN THE AREA MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  

LAT...LON 4276 11124 4287 11121 4283 11104 4268 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 283DEG 21KT 4279 11116 

$$

JKEYES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pocatello, ID wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 1:13 PM MDT, 4 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 1:13 PM MDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
113 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IDAHO TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS PUSHED INTO WYOMING WHILE THE SECOND ROUND
IS FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALSO THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE BATCH UP NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PUSH SOUTH AWAY
FROM THAT AREA AND PRODUCE STORMS. BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE
WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS WESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE
PATTERN BRIEFLY. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
FROM CANADA SAGS SOUTHWARD AND INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW STORMS CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR THE
MONTANA BORDER...AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AS A BIT OF
MOISTURE SNEAKS NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH MANY OF US
SEEING 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE WILL BE NO REAL
TEMPERATURE CHANGE AS WE REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL IF NOT JUST
BELOW.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL END UP IN SPLIT FLOW...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW
MUCH STORMINESS WE WILL SEE ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
WHAT EVENTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THE SPLIT AS IT CROSSES IDAHO. ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT
THEY ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON ITS TRACK. THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS
ON THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER WITH A
MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE CHAOTIC ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
SPLIT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD GET KICKED OUT
EVENTUALLY AS THE NEXT BIGGER LOW DROPS TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS NO MATTER WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING AS SOME MOISTURE PUSHES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. IT WILL JUST DEPEND ON IF
WE CAN TAP INTO ANY MONSOON MOISTURE AT SOME POINT. TEMPERATURES
COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND AND PUSH US BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S AREAWIDE. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION....UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD...BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. EXPECT STORMS TO TRIGGER OVER
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE TROUGH WILL HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN ON A DRY NOTE AS
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.  HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:38 PM MDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
438 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

IDZ022-152345-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ID-
438 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AFFECTING SOUTH
CENTRAL CASSIA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 438 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF OAKLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELBA...ALMO...MT HARRISON AND CITY OF ROCKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4205 11366 4220 11389 4242 11370 4224 11338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 222DEG 5KT 4220 11374

MESSICK

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:51 PM MDT, 52 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
451 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

IDZ019-020-152330-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ID-
451 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL AFFECTING EASTERN
CLARK...FREMONT AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 450 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MACKS INN TO NEAR ST
ANTHONY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ASHTON...HENRYS
LAKE...PARKER...DRUMMOND...ST ANTHONY... ISLAND PARK
VILLAGE...CHESTER...ASHTON RESERVOIR...PONDS LODGE...ISLAND PARK
RESERVOIR...MACKS INN...SHOTGUN VILLAGE...ASHTON HILL...BIG
SPRINGS...MESA FALLS STATE PARK...HARRIMAN STATE PARK AND NORTHERN
SAINT ANTHONY SAND DUNES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4389 11184 4452 11165 4456 11157 4454 11147
      4456 11151 4458 11151 4467 11127 4465 11128
      4461 11124 4458 11123 4457 11118 4453 11113
      4450 11113 4449 11109 4413 11109 4412 11105
      4399 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 234DEG 27KT 4450 11130 4395 11165

JKEYES

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:56 PM MDT, 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
456 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

IDZ020-021-023-152345-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ID-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS ID-
456 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...WINDS OVER 30 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL AFFECTING CENTRAL
BINGHAM AND WEST CENTRAL BONNEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 455 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROSE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS OVER 30 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.  MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN IDAHO FALLS...BLACKFOOT...GOSHEN...AMMON...SHELLEY...
FIRTH...FORT HALL LINCOLN CREEK LODGE...BONE...TABER...ROCKFORD...
MORELAND...ROSE...GROVELAND...BASALT AND WAPELLO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 11272 4341 11273 4349 11180 4315 11174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 261DEG 29KT 4328 11240

JKEYES

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:02 PM MDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
502 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W ST. ANTHONY         43.96N 111.76W
07/15/2015  M0.20 INCH       FREMONT            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN APPROXIMATELY 6 MINUTES WITH A FEW PIECES OF
            PEA-SIZE HAIL.

&&

GWICKLUN

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:21 PM MDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
521 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             10 SE TABER             43.22N 112.49W
07/15/2015  E0.75 INCH       BINGHAM            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/2 INCH TO 3/4 INCH HAIL IN MORELAND AT TIME OF
            OBSERVATION.

&&

GWICKLUN

Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:25 PM MDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
525 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             5 WNW BLACKFOOT         43.22N 112.44W
07/15/2015  E0.88 INCH       BINGHAM            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BEGAN AS PEA-SIZE HAIL AND INCREASED WITHIN 2
            MINUTES WITH HEAVY RAIN FOLLOWING THE HAIL.

&&

GWICKLUN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pocatello, ID issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 12:32 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Butte	43 min
Jul 15, 12:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PIH	Butte, Custer	46 min
Jul 15, 1:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PIH	Butte, Custer	50 min
Jul 15, 2:32 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Butte	58 min
Jul 15, 2:51 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Clark	39 min
Jul 15, 3:01 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Fremont	44 min
Jul 15, 3:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Jefferson, Madison	44 min
Jul 15, 3:42 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Clark, Fremont	48 min
Jul 15, 3:54 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	PIH	Fremont, Jefferson, Madison	51 min
Jul 15, 4:02 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Bear Lake, Franklin	58 min
Jul 15, 4:32 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Power	58 min
Jul 15, 4:38 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Cassia	67 min
Jul 15, 4:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PIH	Cassia, Oneida, Power	49 min
Jul 15, 4:51 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Fremont	39 min
Jul 15, 4:56 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PIH	Bingham	49 min
Jul 15, 5:28 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PIH	Bingham	30 min
Jul 15, 5:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PIH	Bannock, Oneida, Power	55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Idaho, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.