Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
113 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IDAHO TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS PUSHED INTO WYOMING WHILE THE SECOND ROUND
IS FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALSO THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE BATCH UP NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD PUSH SOUTH AWAY
FROM THAT AREA AND PRODUCE STORMS. BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WE
WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS WESTERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE
PATTERN BRIEFLY. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
FROM CANADA SAGS SOUTHWARD AND INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW STORMS CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR THE
MONTANA BORDER...AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AS A BIT OF
MOISTURE SNEAKS NORTH. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH MANY OF US
SEEING 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE WILL BE NO REAL
TEMPERATURE CHANGE AS WE REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL IF NOT JUST
BELOW.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL END UP IN SPLIT FLOW...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE IS HOW
MUCH STORMINESS WE WILL SEE ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
WHAT EVENTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THE SPLIT AS IT CROSSES IDAHO. ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT
THEY ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON ITS TRACK. THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS
ON THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER WITH A
MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS
ARE EVEN MORE CHAOTIC ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
SPLIT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD GET KICKED OUT
EVENTUALLY AS THE NEXT BIGGER LOW DROPS TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS NO MATTER WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING AS SOME MOISTURE PUSHES
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. IT WILL JUST DEPEND ON IF
WE CAN TAP INTO ANY MONSOON MOISTURE AT SOME POINT. TEMPERATURES
COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S IN THE
VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A
WARMING TREND AND PUSH US BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S AREAWIDE. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION....UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD...BUT COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. EXPECT STORMS TO TRIGGER OVER
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. THE TROUGH WILL HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN ON A DRY NOTE AS
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.  HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
342 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

IDZ019-152230-
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ID-
342 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN FOR
NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND NORTHERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 341 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST YELLOWSTONE TO
PONDS LODGE TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF IDMON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENRYS LAKE...IDMON...SPENCER...KILGORE...ISLAND PARK VILLAGE...PONDS
LODGE...LAST CHANCE...ISLAND PARK RESERVOIR...MACKS INN...SHOTGUN
VILLAGE...ASHTON HILL...SHERIDAN RESERVOIR...BIG SPRINGS...MESA
FALLS STATE PARK...HARRIMAN STATE PARK AND TARGHEE PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 11249 4454 11214 4452 11210 4456 11187
      4451 11181 4456 11168 4454 11147 4459 11152
      4464 11152 4467 11147 4470 11149 4471 11142
      4476 11139 4462 11122 4458 11123 4457 11118
      4449 11109 4413 11109 4413 11105 4407 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 275DEG 29KT 4472 11106 4443 11140 4419 11192

JKEYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
348 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             ROBERTS                 43.72N 112.13W
07/15/2015  M0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            HAIL FALLING AT TIME OF CALL. WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH.
            RAINFALL INCREASING.

&&

GWICKLUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
402 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

IDZ022>025-152300-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ID-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION ID-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS ID-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION ID-
402 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HAIL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BANNOCK...SOUTHEASTERN CARIBOU...SOUTHEASTERN
CASSIA...FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN ONEIDA AND BEAR LAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 500
PM MDT...

AT 400 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GEORGETOWN TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF SWANLAKE TO 10 MILES WEST OF
JUNIPER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL LESS THAN AN INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRESTON...MONTPELIER...MALAD...FRANKLIN...GEORGETOWN...ONEIDA NARROWS
RESERVOIR...PLEASANTVIEW...CHERRY CREEK REST AREA...THATCHER...
PARIS...DAYTON...WESTON...CLIFTON...BLOOMINGTON...OXFORD...SAMARIA...
STONE...GENEVA SUMMIT...BENNINGTON AND GEORGETOWN SUMMIT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4203 11333 4223 11207 4263 11144 4243 11105
      4236 11105 4200 11165 4199 11329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 314DEG 11KT 4255 11147 4220 11202 4201 11319

MESSICK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
438 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

IDZ022-152345-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ID-
438 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AFFECTING SOUTH
CENTRAL CASSIA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 438 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF OAKLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELBA...ALMO...MT HARRISON AND CITY OF ROCKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4205 11366 4220 11389 4242 11370 4224 11338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 222DEG 5KT 4220 11374

MESSICK