Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
136 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA WILL FOCUS MORE INTO
WEST KY (SE 1/2) WHERE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...ALL IN ADVANCE OF A TROF AXIS/PVA REGION MOVING
SE THROUGH IL/MO. AS EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS. HAD A FEW SEVERE REPORTS
ALREADY. IT WILL TAKE NOTHING FOR WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE
GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL MASS OF THE
CELLS. HAIL GENERALLY 1-1 1/4". THE CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF...WITH DECENT NVA DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. FOR SOME REASON THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIM
CHANCE OF WEAK CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT COMPLETELY SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE KY/TN
STATE LINE TOWARD THE PENNYRILE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE S/WV AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

WILL KEEP POPS IN CHECK...FAIRLY LOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME
FORM OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SE QUAD OF THE
CONUS. WE WILL BE IN MOIST AND UNSETTLED SSW FLOW ON THE WEST
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION.
BUT POPS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN A LACK OF FOCUS BOTH SURFACE AND
ALOFT. VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST. THIS IS A TAD MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN WHAT THE MODELS SHOWED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THE
GFS PROBABLY HANDLED IT A BIT BETTER. THIS AGAIN WILL KEEP POPS IN
CHECK...LOW WITH LOWEST POPS SE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER NW (20S/30S). AGAIN...NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS MEANS WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS FROM SW INDIANA...SRN ILLINOIS BACK INTO SEMO
SHOULD CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND WITH MUCH
STRONGER CONVECTION FOCUSED IN WEST KY. WILL CARRY SHOWERS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON KEVV AND KOWB WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LESS
CERTAINTY ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT KCGI AND KPAH. TONIGHT
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH LIGHT WINDS. COULD BE SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG. THEREFORE WE UTILIZED AN INTRODUCTORY MVFR MENTION OF IT LATE
AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
150 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
150 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
INTO WEST KENTUCKY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW MADRID TO
PADUCAH TO OWENSBORO. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS ALONG WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST AROUND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1204 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     DOWNBURST        7 SW HOPKINSVILLE       36.78N 87.58W
06/08/2015                   CHRISTIAN          KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            MICROBURST BEGAN AT INTERSECTION OF I-24 AND COX MILL
            ROAD AND END 4.5 MILES SW HOPKINSVILLE ALONG COX MILL
            ROAD. MAX WIND 85 MPH WITH PATH LENGTH 2.5 MILES. PATH
            WIDTH 1/3 MILE. DOZENS OF TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED ALONG
            WITH DOWNED TREE LIMBS. AREAS OF WHEAT AND CORN CROPS
            BLOWN OVER. 1 SHED DAMAGED FROM FALLEN TREE.

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

KYZ001>003-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022-081930-
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-
CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
MAYFIELD...BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

AT 1230 PM...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MAYFIELD...GREENVILLE KENTUCKY LINE DOWN TO THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AROUND 40 MPH. AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A TREE OR TWO COULD COME DOWN WITH
ANY OF THE ACTIVITY. CONTINUE TO WATCH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1232 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E MOUNT VERNON        38.32N 88.82W
06/08/2015  M4.30 INCH       JEFFERSON          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAINFALL ACCUMULATION SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
113 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             AURORA                  36.78N 88.14W
06/08/2015  M1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
132 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             CALVERT CITY            37.03N 88.35W
06/08/2015  M1.25 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCAL FIRE DEPT REPORTED GROUND COVERED WITH QUARTER SIZE
            TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

SMITTY