River Flood Warning 52, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

CONVECTION WAS BLEEDING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER AS PRE
FRONTAL STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE IN. THE COLD FRONT DRIVING THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE MAKING ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
THEREFORE AMPLIFYING THE CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAKING FOR A CATEGORICAL POP DAY FOR ALL
OF THE QUAD STATE...ESP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS WHEN THE
FRONT ITSELF IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND 60S THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME
SPAN...BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO HEAT UP AGAIN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE IMMEDIATE REGION DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST
WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. MODELS ARE LIMITED IN THE EXTENT TO
WHICH THEY ARE ABLE TO RESOLVE THESE MINOR FEATURES THROUGH TIME...
SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS FROM ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY TO
AVERAGE OR BELOW BY THE WEEKEND.

TO START THE EXTENDED...WE EXPECT THE MID WEEK DRY PATTERN WILL
LARGELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS
CLOSELY TIED TO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. WITH
TIME...THE ACTIVE WEATHER OUT WEST AND POOL OF GULF MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY CONVERGE UPON THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BROAD BUT WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH A LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FOCUS AT THIS POINT...THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPORADIC IN COVERAGE AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. AS WITH EARLIER FORECASTS...AT NO POINT IS CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...THEN
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY GIVEN THE
INCREASE IN SKY COVER AND HUMIDITY. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO THE NIGHT WITH LOWS EACH MORNING AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

SHOWERS/AND SOME TSTMS... WITH MINIMAL ANTICIPATED EFFECT ON
CIGS/VSBYS...ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS
RIVER. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDDAY/GOING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
OCCURRENCE OF PCPN APPEARS MORE PROBABLE OVERALL FOR THE KEVV/KOWB
TERMINALS VERSUS KCGI/KPAH BUT IS A LIKELY TO HIGH POP
CATEGORICAL EVENT FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
350 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE QUAD
STATE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
WHILE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR NON
SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN WEATHER WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL WEATHER
UPDATES LATER TODAY.