Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Paducah, KY

May 30, 2015Todd County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 30, 2015, 5:17 PM CDT for Todd County, Kentucky. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 30, 2015, 5:17 PM CDT (22:17 UTC)
Expired: May 30, 2015, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Todd County, KY

The radar

The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3293 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 30, 2:50 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 30, 2:50 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WARM/MOIST ENVIRON FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP/DISSIPATE/REDEVELOP IN
AFTERNOON HEAT...BUT NO STRONG DYNAMICAL ENERGY MEANS MAINLY PULSE
AND LINE SEGMENTS SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN PRIMARY FOCUS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST HOWEVER.

THIS HIGH POP REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UPPER
LOW OPENS OUT ON ITS MOVE ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLES AND DRIVES COLD FRONT THRU FOR PASSAGE. BY
MIDNIGHT/THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM BEHIND
FRONT...AS IT SHFTS EAST.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DOES LIFT ACROSS MEAN UPPER TROF AND THRU
OUR AREA TMRW...SO WE'LL HAVE TO LINGER POPS THRU SUNDAY...BUT
THEY'LL BE ON THE DOWNTICK IN COMPARISON.

HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY AS
LOWS IN THE 60S RECENTLY NUDGE DOWN INTO THE 50S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BECOME POOR. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE ALL SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS...THE TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE MODELS KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THEY INDICATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST IS A BIT WETTER LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
THURSDAY. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAK
AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TUESDAY AND AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...HIGH
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
CREEP UPWARD AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WHILE VFR SCT-BKN BASES ARE PRESENT...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SIMILARLY...MVFR RESTRICTED VSBYS IN CONVECTION ARE
FORECAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IFR CANNOT BE ALTOGETHER
RULED OUT. SLYS MAY GUST INTO THE 20S KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
DIURNALLY. OVERNIGHT...POPS SHOULD WANE BUT LOW CIGS IN THE IFR
CAT MAYD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND FRONT MAKING PASSAGE. WE'LL SEE THAT
MOVE BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER SUNRISE/DURING THE PLANNING
PERIOD AS VICINITY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN APPEARS. WINDS
TONIGHT SHIFT TO WLYS WITH FROPA AND THEN NWLYS-NLYS BY TMRW
MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...MY

Hazardous weather outlook, May 30, 4:29 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, May 30, 4:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 4:01 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 4:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 4:33 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 30, 4:50 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 30, 4:53 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 12:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Fulton, Hickman	49 min
May 30, 1:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Ballard, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton, Graves and 5 more	59 min
May 30, 2:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Caldwell, Calloway, Crittenden, Graves, Livingston, Lyon and 3 more	40 min
May 30, 3:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Union	47 min
May 30, 3:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Caldwell, Henderson, Hopkins, Webster	65 min
May 30, 3:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Henderson, Union	25 min
May 30, 4:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Daviess	42 min
May 30, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Muhlenberg	19 min
May 29, 9:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Perry	53 min
May 30, 11:28 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	PAH	Alexander, Jackson, Union	9 days
May 30, 4:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Wabash	66 min
May 30, 4:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wabash	28 min
May 30, 4:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Wabash	10 min
May 30, 12:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi	15 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.