Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WARM/MOIST ENVIRON FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP/DISSIPATE/REDEVELOP IN
AFTERNOON HEAT...BUT NO STRONG DYNAMICAL ENERGY MEANS MAINLY PULSE
AND LINE SEGMENTS SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN PRIMARY FOCUS. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST HOWEVER.

THIS HIGH POP REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UPPER
LOW OPENS OUT ON ITS MOVE ACROSS MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLES AND DRIVES COLD FRONT THRU FOR PASSAGE. BY
MIDNIGHT/THEREAFTER...SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM BEHIND
FRONT...AS IT SHFTS EAST.

ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DOES LIFT ACROSS MEAN UPPER TROF AND THRU
OUR AREA TMRW...SO WE'LL HAVE TO LINGER POPS THRU SUNDAY...BUT
THEY'LL BE ON THE DOWNTICK IN COMPARISON.

HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY AS
LOWS IN THE 60S RECENTLY NUDGE DOWN INTO THE 50S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BECOME POOR. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE ALL SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS...THE TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. THE MODELS KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THEY INDICATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST IS A BIT WETTER LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
CONTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE
MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
THURSDAY. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAK
AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
TUESDAY AND AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...HIGH
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
CREEP UPWARD AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WHILE VFR SCT-BKN BASES ARE PRESENT...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SIMILARLY...MVFR RESTRICTED VSBYS IN CONVECTION ARE
FORECAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IFR CANNOT BE ALTOGETHER
RULED OUT. SLYS MAY GUST INTO THE 20S KTS AT TIMES...MAINLY
DIURNALLY. OVERNIGHT...POPS SHOULD WANE BUT LOW CIGS IN THE IFR
CAT MAYD DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND FRONT MAKING PASSAGE. WE'LL SEE THAT
MOVE BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE AFTER SUNRISE/DURING THE PLANNING
PERIOD AS VICINITY MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN APPEARS. WINDS
TONIGHT SHIFT TO WLYS WITH FROPA AND THEN NWLYS-NLYS BY TMRW
MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-311000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
339 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A STRAY
STORM MAY PULSE UP TO PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY SUNDAY. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ILZ081>091-094-KYZ005>014-301945-
JACKSON IL-FRANKLIN IL-GALLATIN IL-WHITE IL-HAMILTON IL-UNION IL-
POPE IL-HARDIN IL-WILLIAMSON IL-MASSAC IL-JOHNSON IL-SALINE IL-
CALLOWAY KY-CRITTENDEN KY-CALDWELL KY-GRAVES KY-UNION KY-LYON KY-
MARSHALL KY-LIVINGSTON KY-TRIGG KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION...NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON...MASSAC...SALINE...JOHNSON...FRANKLIN...HAMILTON...POPE...
GALLATIN...WILLIAMSON...HARDIN...SOUTHWESTERN WHITE...SOUTHWESTERN
POSEY...LYON...MCCRACKEN...TRIGG...SOUTHWESTERN UNION...CALLOWAY...
LIVINGSTON...MARSHALL...GRAVES...CRITTENDEN AND CENTRAL CALDWELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 205 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DE SOTO TO NEAR VIENNA
TO NEAR MAYFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARBONDALE...PADUCAH...MURRAY...HERRIN...MAYFIELD...HARRISBURG...WEST
FRANKFORT...MURPHYSBORO...BENTON...METROPOLIS...PRINCETON...
CARTERVILLE...ELDORADO...JOHNSTON CITY...MARION...MCLEANSBORO...
CALVERT CITY...CADIZ...CHRISTOPHER AND STURGIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 8870 3742 8892 3784 8939 3819 8852
      3786 8807 3782 8806 3783 8808 3782 8809
      3780 8805 3664 8771 3663 8785 3667 8786
      3668 8807 3655 8804 3650 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 235DEG 47KT 3782 8928 3746 8887 3679 8866

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ILZ087-091-KYZ010-014-302115-
HARDIN IL-GALLATIN IL-CRITTENDEN KY-UNION KY-
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GALLATIN...
NORTHEASTERN HARDIN...SOUTHWESTERN POSEY...NORTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN
AND SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 328 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF STURGIS...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGANFIELD...STURGIS...SHAWNEETOWN...UNIONTOWN...CAVE-IN-ROCK AND
OLD SHAWNEETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 8807 3780 8807 3780 8806 3779 8798
      3777 8796 3778 8794 3777 8786 3739 8799
      3745 8823 3782 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 193DEG 34KT 3750 8811

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

INZ086-KYZ010-013>016-018-020-302145-
VANDERBURGH IN-HOPKINS KY-CRITTENDEN KY-CALDWELL KY-HENDERSON KY-
UNION KY-WEBSTER KY-MCLEAN KY-
340 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VANDERBURGH...
WESTERN HENDERSON...WEBSTER...CENTRAL HOPKINS...EASTERN CRITTENDEN...
CENTRAL CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 339 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR STURGIS TO NEAR CLAY
TO NEAR OLNEY TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF CANTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENDERSON...MADISONVILLE...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
DAWSON SPRINGS...BRECKINRIDGE CENTER...SEBREE...EARLINGTON...CLAY...
DIXON...CORYDON...ROBARDS...OLNEY...HANSON...WAVERLY...NEBO...
SLAUGHTERS...WHEATCROFT AND FRYER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PADUCAH.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 8753 3713 8783 3708 8790 3723 8787
      3742 8790 3760 8798 3796 8759 3779 8749
      3758 8745
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 223DEG 28KT 3757 8793 3743 8787 3722 8784 3667
8796

SMITH

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