Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS PAH FA IS HELPING FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG IT. HIGH PW'S AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS ADDING
TO PREDECESSOR RAINS TO HEIGHTEN FLOOD CONCERNS...COLLABORATED FOR
FFA ACROSS ENTIRE FA THRU 00Z THU.

ANTICIPATE MORE OR LESS CONTINUAL PULSING OF STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY
AND REPEAT TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS THRU TONITE INTO TMRW...AS
PIECES OF ENERGY RUN ALONG IT WITH PARALLEL FLOW ATOP IT. THIS
WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...TAPERING CHANCES AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND
STARTS TO SQUEEZE OUT/DISINTEGRATE SAID BOUNDARY WITH TIME.
CLOUDS/CONVECTION TO HOLD DIURNAL RANGES DOWN UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
A FAIRLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND.  A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER OVER OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.  PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FRIDAY, AND INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.  DEW POINTS WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY, AND THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SURFACE LOW SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE CANADIAN SEEMS
TO KEEP THIS FEATURE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THOUGH THE GFS ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, OVERALL THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SEEM
A REASONABLE SOLUTION TO FOLLOW.  A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN AREAL CONVECTION WILL IMPACT TERMINALS THRU
THE EVENING WITH REGARD TO BOTH CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY
LIMIT PREVALING VSBYS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY APPLY LATE TONITE-
EARLY TMRW IN FOG/LOW CLOUD AND/OR PCPN. DAYTIME IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE GRADUAL WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING AND VSBYS SLOW TO IMPROVE TO
VFR THRU THE PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1134 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MAY REPEAT HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SAME AREAS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

REFERENCE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON CONTINUED
RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LONE OAK                37.04N 88.67W
07/07/2015  E4.90 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   PUBLIC

            4.9 INCHES STORM TOTAL FROM THIS MORNING

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S JUNCTION            37.69N 88.24W
07/07/2015  M2.50 INCH       GALLATIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS
            FLOODED

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE EVANSVILLE         37.96N 87.52W
07/07/2015  M2.00 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY NEAR ANGEL MOUNDS. MODERATE
            TO HEAVY RAIN ONGOING

&&

SP

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