Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Paducah, KY

406 
WGUS73 KPAH 071129
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ILC127-151-KYC139-157-071315-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-150707T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASSAC IL-POPE IL-MARSHALL KY-LIVINGSTON KY-
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC...SOUTHEASTERN POPE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES...

AT 627 AM CDT...RADAR ESTIMATED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. 
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST...BUT HIGH WATER MAY TAKE 
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS TO RECEDE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CALVERT CITY...LEDBETTER...GRAND RIVERS...SMITHLAND AND HAMLETSBURG. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NEVER DRIVE ACROSS A WATER COVERED ROAD. YOUR CAR MAY BECOME 
STRANDED OR SWEPT OFF THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 8848 3703 8852 3708 8857 3707 8851
      3711 8849 3720 8855 3719 8822 3708 8823
      3702 8823 3700 8821 3695 8849

$$

334 
WGUS53 KPAH 071213
FFWPAH
ILC127-151-KYC139-157-071415-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-150707T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
713 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
  NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
  SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT
    
* RADAR ESTIMATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL EARLY THIS MORNING 
  ACROSS THE WARNED AREA ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SMITHLAND AND CALVERT 
  CITY. AREAS FROM LEDBETTER WEST INTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF PADUCAH 
  THEN DOWNTOWN...HAD WATER COVERED ROADS...THOUGH IN SOME CASES THE 
  WATER WAS STARTING TO RECEDE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  CALVERT CITY...LEDBETTER...GRAND RIVERS...SMITHLAND AND
  HAMLETSBURG.

LAT...LON 3702 8848 3703 8852 3708 8857 3707 8851
      3711 8849 3720 8855 3719 8822 3708 8823
      3702 8823 3700 8821 3695 8849

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THURSDAY.

AS OF 2 AM...THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS FIRING UP IN EXTREME
WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
FORECASTING THESE STORMS...INCLUDING THEIR TIMING AND AREAL
PLACEMENT. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SRN ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA.

AFTER THE EARLY MORNING STORMS EXIT OUR REGION...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A KMVN/KMDH/KPOF LINE EARLY THIS
EVENING. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRECEDE
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD BET GIVEN VERY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND MODERATELY STRONG
LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY
PUSH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO TENNESSEE. IN ANY CASE...PRECIP
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WILL SERVE TO
PULL THE FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS /TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/ ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.
WPC GUIDANCE AND OFFICE GRIDDED QPF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING AROUND TWO INCHES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A KMVN/KMDH
LINE...AS WELL AS NW OF KCGI. EVEN THOUGH THE GROUND IS VERY
MOIST...THESE AMOUNTS ARE MARGINAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS AND HWO...AND HOLD OFF ON A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD TEND TO BE
MORE SCATTERED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO EXPAND NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
OVER OUR REGION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY IN
ALL AREAS...AND THEN LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP...DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WILL BE
QUITE SMALL...ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR SO. IN THE AREAS OF
HIGHEST QPF AND CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MODEL PREFERENCE - A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF WITH A
MINOR INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z ECMWF. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL DRIFT WEST AND EVENTUALLY ALLOW MORE
PROMINENT NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST U.S.

HAVE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH...I64 FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WE ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY...HOT HUMID WEATHER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER HIGH AND THE DRIER AIRMASS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY IT.
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAT OF THE DAY CONVECTION WITH
COVERAGE GENERALLY AOB 10 PERCENT. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE
CONVECTIVE POPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODELS DEPICTION OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND
EXISTING NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...LIKELY AFFECTING THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OUTSIDE THE STORMS
ACROSS SE MISSOURI. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING.

A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-080915-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
415 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
AROUND TWO INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON
MONDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING THAT
MAY OCCUR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
444 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

KYZ004>006-071030-
BALLARD KY-GRAVES KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
444 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BALLARD...MCCRACKEN...
NORTHEASTERN GRAVES...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 443 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LA CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE WINDS COULD BRING DOWN A TREE OR TWO GIVEN SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PADUCAH...LA CENTER...REIDLAND...LONE OAK...WEST PADUCAH...
WOODLAWN-OAKDALE...HENDRON...MASSAC AND KEVIL.

LAT...LON 3700 8900 3718 8897 3717 8878 3714 8873
      3714 8870 3711 8861 3706 8855 3705 8855
      3703 8852 3702 8848 3691 8849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 277DEG 29KT 3709 8889

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
511 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST PADUCAH            37.08N 88.74W
07/07/2015  M2.37 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   ASOS

&&

CTN