Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT NEAR THE TWO CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT.

TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THE NORTHERN CLUSTER MAY MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER WILL AFFECT LAWTON AND
PERHAPS WICHITA FALLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OVERALL...THINK
THE CLUSTERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THINK A HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MAINLY HAIL SMALLER THAN GOLF BALLS AND MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND AROUND 60 MPH.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE OVERCONVECTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL
MAY GET UP TO GOLF BALLS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW
DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGESTED THAT CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IN THE 10 PM TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN ALTERED...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED TONIGHT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

AVIATION...
ISO-NUM TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT KPNC THROUGH
06Z. EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY GIVEN
SITE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 30 MINUTES...COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. KEPT TEMPO/VCTS MENTIONS AT MOST SITES.

OVERALL...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR COULD DEVELOP 06-18Z ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 18Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED A LOT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT LARGELY UNFOCUSED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY CREATE ITS OWN FOCUS LATER TONIGHT. AS NOTED
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

TOMORROW WILL BE VERY BREEZY AND WARM. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN
THE MORNING AGAIN...MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH OF I-40. A STRONGER CAP
WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
PROBABLY DO SO VERY QUICKLY...AND BE RATHER STRONG.

THE GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS...TEMPORARILY BRINGING AN END TO EVEN THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE BY EVENING...AND RAIN
CHANCES PROMPTLY SPREAD NORTH AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  83  62  81 /  50  10  10  10
HOBART OK         59  85  57  81 /  50  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  82  62  90 /  60  10  10  10
GAGE OK           54  89  50  74 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  83  60  76 /  20  10  20  20
DURANT OK         62  79  62  85 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014.

TX...NONE.
&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
949 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-020245-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
949 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

.LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A SEYMOUR TEXAS TO ALTUS
TO CLINTON TO CHANDLER LINE...INCLUDING THE THE OKLAHOMA CITY...
LAWTON...WICHITA FALLS...ADA...AND DURANT AREAS.

.TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT.

.IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH
ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS VERY LOW.

.DISCUSSION...
TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WITHIN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN MUCH OF THE REST OF OKLAHOMA APART FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE MARGINAL
RISK EXTENDS INTO PART OF NORTH TEXAS. OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF STILLWATER...
OKLAHOMA CITY...AND ARDMORE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON MONDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

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