Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Norman, OK

March 31, 2015Pottawatomie County, Seminole County, Oklahoma

NWS Norman, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 31, 2015, 7:28 PM CDT for Pottawatomie County, Seminole County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2015, 7:28 PM CDT (00:28 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2015, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 31, 3:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1642 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1964 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 31, 6:36 PM CDT, 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 6:36 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST TEXAS AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST
THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...NOT COMPLETELY SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS MID/UPPER
FORCING REMAINS WEAK. LATEST HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE OVERCONVECTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND REPORT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL
MAY GET UP TO GOLF BALLS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW
DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST HRRR COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES
SUGGESTED THAT CURRENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A CLUSTER OR LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IN THE 10 PM TO 1 AM TIME
FRAME.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN ALTERED...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED TONIGHT. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...
ISO-NUM TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT KPNC THROUGH
06Z. EXACT COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY GIVEN
SITE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 30 MINUTES...COULD
OCCUR AS WELL. KEPT TEMPO/VCTS MENTIONS AT MOST SITES.

OVERALL...BELIEVE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WITH BR COULD DEVELOP 06-18Z ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 18Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED A LOT IN
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. WE EXPECT LARGELY UNFOCUSED
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY CREATE ITS OWN FOCUS LATER TONIGHT. AS NOTED
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

TOMORROW WILL BE VERY BREEZY AND WARM. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG IN
THE MORNING AGAIN...MOST LIKELY NEAR/NORTH OF I-40. A STRONGER CAP
WILL LIMIT STORM CHANCES...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD
PROBABLY DO SO VERY QUICKLY...AND BE RATHER STRONG.

THE GENERAL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS...TEMPORARILY BRINGING AN END TO EVEN THE LOW RAIN
CHANCES OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DAY WITHOUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD ADVANCE BY EVENING...AND RAIN
CHANCES PROMPTLY SPREAD NORTH AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014.

TX...NONE.
&&

17

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 12:00 PM CDT, 7 hours 28 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:39 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:42 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 31, 7:05 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 31, 7:10 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 31, 7:13 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
713 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKZ033-036-010045-
HARMON OK-JACKSON OK-
713 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARMON AND WEST
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ELDORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELDORADO.

LAT...LON 3444 9976 3452 9980 3462 9968 3459 9957
      3449 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 240DEG 19KT 3451 9973

KURTZ

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 7:16 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
716 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKZ030-031-010100-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-SEMINOLE OK-
716 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE AND WEST
CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 715 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF EARLSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEMINOLE...TECUMSEH...MAUD...EARLSBORO...BOWLEGS AND HARJO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 9694 3526 9695 3533 9664 3510 9660
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 266DEG 12KT 3521 9686

AUSTIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 7:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harmon	40 min
Mar 31, 7:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Roger Mills	35 min
Mar 31, 7:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Jackson	32 min
Mar 31, 7:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Pottawatomie	44 min
Mar 31, 7:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Harmon, Jackson	25 min
Mar 31, 7:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Dewey	34 min
Mar 31, 7:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harmon	30 min
Mar 31, 7:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Beckham	27 min
Mar 31, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham, Greer	39 min
Mar 31, 7:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Pottawatomie, Seminole	51 min
Mar 31, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Dewey, Roger Mills	33 min
Mar 31, 7:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harmon	31 min
Mar 31, 8:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Jackson	25 min
Mar 31, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Harmon, Jackson	35 min
Mar 31, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Seminole	46 min
Mar 31, 8:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jackson	25 min
Mar 31, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Dewey, Roger Mills	23 min
Mar 31, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Seminole	23 min
Mar 31, 8:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Roger Mills	37 min
Mar 31, 8:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Roger Mills, Washita	51 min
Mar 31, 8:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jackson	33 min
Mar 31, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jackson	23 min
Mar 31, 8:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Hughes, Seminole	48 min
Mar 31, 9:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman	27 min
Mar 31, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Washita	51 min
Mar 31, 9:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Kingfisher	41 min
Mar 31, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Hughes, Seminole	47 min
Mar 31, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Comanche, Cotton, Kiowa, Tillman	31 min
Mar 31, 9:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Kingfisher	38 min
Mar 31, 9:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Kingfisher	47 min
Mar 31, 10:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Washita	42 min
Mar 31, 10:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Comanche, Cotton, Tillman	32 min
Mar 31, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Lincoln, Pottawatomie, Seminole	47 min
Mar 31, 10:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Seminole	29 min
Mar 31, 10:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Cleveland	25 min
Mar 31, 10:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Grady	50 min
Mar 31, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Comanche	32 min
Mar 31, 10:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cleveland, Oklahoma	44 min
Mar 31, 10:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Caddo, Grady	40 min
Mar 31, 10:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Seminole	34 min
Mar 31, 10:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Kingfisher	47 min
Mar 31, 10:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Logan, Oklahoma	32 min
Mar 31, 10:51 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Hughes, Seminole	3 hr
Mar 31, 10:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Lincoln, Pottawatomie, Seminole	35 min
Mar 31, 10:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Stephens	46 min
Mar 31, 11:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Oklahoma	51 min
Mar 31, 11:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, McClain, Oklahoma	34 min
Mar 31, 11:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Hughes, Seminole	30 min
Mar 31, 11:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Logan	43 min
Mar 31, 11:26 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Canadian, Cleveland, Lincoln, Oklahoma, Pottawatomie	3 hr
Mar 31, 11:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Lincoln, Pottawatomie	34 min
Mar 31, 11:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Garvin, Stephens	41 min
Mar 31, 11:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Lincoln, Logan, McClain and 1 more	37 min
Mar 31, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Garvin, Grady, Murray, Stephens	49 min
Apr 1, 12:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cleveland, Garvin, McClain	23 min
Apr 1, 12:13 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Cleveland, Oklahoma	2 hr
Apr 1, 12:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cleveland, Lincoln, Oklahoma, Pottawatomie	47 min
Apr 1, 12:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cleveland, Garvin, McClain, Murray, Pontotoc	26 min
Apr 1, 12:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Garvin, Murray, Pontotoc	35 min
Apr 1, 12:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Noble	47 min
Apr 1, 12:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Lincoln, Pottawatomie, Seminole	40 min
Apr 1, 12:52 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	OUN	Pottawatomie	113 min
Apr 1, 1:04 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Coal, Pontotoc, Seminole	41 min
Apr 1, 1:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Atoka, Coal, Hughes, Johnston, Pontotoc, Pottawatomie and 1 more	52 min
Apr 1, 1:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Kay	47 min
Apr 1, 1:38 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Hughes, Seminole	112 min
Apr 1, 2:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Atoka, Bryan	27 min
Apr 1, 2:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Pittsburg	29 min
Apr 1, 2:37 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Atoka	23 min
Apr 1, 3:29 AM CDT	Red Flag Warning	OUN	Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Woods, Woodward	17 hr
Apr 1, 6:50 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Jefferson	25 min
Apr 1, 7:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Marshall	27 min
Apr 1, 8:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Bryan	56 min
Apr 1, 5:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harper	37 min
Apr 1, 5:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harper	27 min
Apr 1, 6:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harper	26 min
Apr 1, 6:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Woodward	29 min
Apr 1, 6:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Harper	32 min
Mar 31, 8:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Hardeman	37 min
Mar 31, 8:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	OUN	Hardeman	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.