Severe Thunderstorm Warning 520, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM...A STALLED FRONT EXTENDED APPROXIMATELY FROM STILLWATER
TO THE ANTELOPE HILLS AREA NORTH OF CHEYENNE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT COMPLETELY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF COLORADO.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES POINTS TO CONTINUED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-
TERM MODELS ARE IN AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL ALSO
FORM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THIS
DOES SEEM REASONABLE...AND WE EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING...IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN
RAIN WILL OCCUR...AS IT WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY SMALL-SCALE
PROCESSES THAT ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH ENDS
NEXT FRIDAY. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

WE HAVE RETAINED THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND HAVE
ELECTED TO ADD ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST BECAUSE OF THE
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WATCH MAY
WELL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME...AND POSSIBLY AREA...IN LATER
UPDATES. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MOST AREA RESERVOIRS ARE
FULL...OR NEARLY SO...WHICH GREATLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF FLOOD
CONTROL THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE THIS TIME. SO...IF WE HAVE RAINFALL
EVEN CLOSE TO WHAT WAS TYPICAL IN MAY...THERE WILL BE FLOODING
PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS.

THROUGH ALL THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON A
DAY-TO-DAY BASIS...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE SOME RATHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM EFFECTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  83  70  85 /  60  70  50  50
HOBART OK         69  83  69  86 /  80  70  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  88  72  89 /  60  60  50  40
GAGE OK           65  80  66  83 /  70  50  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     70  81  72  84 /  80  80  70  60
DURANT OK         72  87  72  86 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>018-
     021>023-033>038.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085.

&&

03/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131745-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WATONGA
OKLAHOMA TO WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM GAGE TO SEILING OKLAHOMA. A MARGINAL RISK AREA EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM NEAR BUFFALO TO PONCA CITY
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTWARD TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM NEAR
STILLWATER TO ARDMORE OKLAHOMA.

.TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.

.IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THEN...LATER THIS EVENING...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AN OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST ANY DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

.HEAVY RAINFALL...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL OF RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/BARNES

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