Severe Thunderstorm Warning 459, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE COMING WEEK WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL...AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...AS STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER THE FAR WEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED
WITH WEAK CAPPING AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IMPACTED EACH DAY BY THE
PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY MOST BE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT...BY MAY
STANDARDS...LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...STALLING DOWN ALONG
THE RED RIVER. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCREASE. WITH THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR
WORSENING RIVER FLOOD AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW LONG IT
WILL REMAIN BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  68  79 /  40  40  40  50
HOBART OK         61  82  67  78 /  30  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  68  82 /  40  30  50  40
GAGE OK           57  82  64  79 /  30  40  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  66  79 /  50  40  40  50
DURANT OK         66  83  68  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/84/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-272215-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

.FLOODING...
NUMEROUS STREAMS... CREEKS... AND RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONLY WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM FREEDOM... TO WEATHERFORD AND CHICKASHA... TO
ADA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THIS
LINE.

TIMING...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...
LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW TORNADOES...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM CLOSE TO NORTHWEST WEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL. THESE STORMS MAY BEGIN AS
SUPERCELLS... THEN TRANSFORM INTO CLUSTERS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN MAINLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY... AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND SHEAR... SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS...
CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRESENT A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY... AND A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAY HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN... AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ

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