Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MORNING STRATUS HAS ERODED AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WITH THE SCATTERED
NATURE... DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAF SITES. HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB30S FOR THE EVENING STORMS WHERE APPROPRIATE
WHEN I CAN. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF DENSE FG FROM NEAR KSPS TO KOKC WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 1230Z AND 1500Z. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHRA WILL TREK E ACROSS
W OK AND W N TX THIS MORNING. THESE HIGH-BASED SHRA SHOULD NOT BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN TO AVIATION...UNLESS THEY DEVELOP INTO TSRA.
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD NOON. STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSRA WHEREVER THEY ARE ABLE TO
FORM...MOST LIKELY IN S OK AND N TX. THESE TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NE INTO CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORECAST AFTER ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT...AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS
RECEDING SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. AT 4 AM...THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG I-35. JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
EDGE...DENSE FOG WAS FORMING IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS. WE HAVE
ELECTED TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BEGINNING WITH COUNTIES THAT HAVE...OR SHOW A STRONG
PROMISE OF...VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH OR WEST IF FOG SPREADS MUCH BEYOND ITS
CURRENT BOUNDS.

FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-AIR
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOOSELY-FOCUSED CONVECTION. THE
DRYLINE...OR PERHAPS THE NOT-AS-HUMID-LINE...MAY PROVIDE A BIT OF
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. IN ANY
CASE...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BECOME QUITE
SEVERE.

THURSDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE...WITH STRONGER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
GREATER SUPPORT FOR STORMS...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS...OF
COURSE...ASSUMES THAT THE COLD FRONT DOES ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. IT TENDS TO BE FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO GET COLD
FRONTS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT THE ECMWF IS BEING UNREALISTIC IN ITS PLAN OF TAKING THE
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE GFS LOOKS PERHAPS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY...AND THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  62  82  67 /  20  40  50  50
HOBART OK         80  60  83  65 /  20  20  40  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  65  86  66 /  30  30  40  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  62 /  20  20  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     81  61  83  65 /  20  40  30  40
DURANT OK         82  66  83  66 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271645-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.FLOODING...
NUMEROUS STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ONLY WORSEN ONGOING FLOODING.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM FREEDOM...TO WEATHERFORD AND CHICKASHA...TO
ADA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF THIS
LINE.

TIMING...
2 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...
LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW TORNADOES...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM CLOSE TO NORTHWEST
WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL. THESE STORMS MAY BEGIN AS
SUPERCELLS...THEN TRANSFORM INTO CLUSTERS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN MAINLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND SHEAR...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW
TORNADOES TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRESENT A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...AND A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAY HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>