Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
101 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOKC/KOUN/KGAG/KWWR/KPNC/KCSM/KHBR/KLAW/KSPS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR KSPS AT 18Z...AND THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT. LARGE AMOUNTS OF
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD +SHRA AND A FEW
+TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND E OF THE LOW. LIGHTER
RA/SHRA WILL BE COMMON FARTHER W TODAY. AS THE LOW/FRONT MOVE NE
INTO NE OK TONIGHT...RA SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY IN
W OK AND KSPS...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND BR WILL REMAIN. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT FAR W OK...KWWR/KGAG/KCSM/KHBR...MAY SEE SOME
CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS IS UNLIKELY...BUT IF IT
HAPPENS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE FG INSTEAD OF LOW CEILINGS. ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS OF THE TAFS IS VERY LOW...BECAUSE OF
MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS...PLUS A HIGH OVERCAST THAT OBSCURES
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE LOWER LAYERS...AND THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT SPS...LAW AND PERHAPS HBR.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAIN WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OUN/OKC
MAINLY AFTER 19-20Z PER RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...
WHICH INCLUDE...ADDING A FEW SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WHILE REMOVING A FEW COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

RAIN COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SINCE MIDNIGHT AND CURRENT ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE CLOSELY RELATED TO POSITION OF 8H FRONT PER
SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE. MEANWHILE...HIGHER RAINFALL RATES
ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO KNOX COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE FLOW SHOULD BACK AS
A VORT MAX MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA.
AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

FOR NOW WILL LEAVE NORTH CENTRAL IN THE FLOOD WATCH AS THE
LATEST NAM12 IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND A WARM
FRONT DEVELOPS/LIFTS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

BY FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING
DRY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  66  80  71 /  80  90  60  20
HOBART OK         74  64  83  70 /  90  80  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  68  85  73 / 100  80  60  10
GAGE OK           72  61  81  68 /  40  40  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     77  64  78  68 /  60  80  50  40
DURANT OK         86  71  88  73 /  80  70  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-
     011>047-050.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

25/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1149 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A LARGE PART
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH FOR
DETAILS. THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE OVER PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS... AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.FLOODING....
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.THUNDERSTORMS....
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.
LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.HEAT...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS/EM

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