Flash Flood Warning 122, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AT 23Z...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSRA EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN
KPNC AND KICT TO KWWR. THIS LINE OF TSRA WILL ADVANCE SE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING 2-4 HOURS OF TSRA TO MOST TAF SITES BY 10Z
TONIGHT. AFTER THE INITIAL TSRA...WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL FILL IN
NEAR/N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ROUGHLY FROM
KLTS-KCHK-KOUN-KSNL. THE RAIN TOMORROW WILL AFFECT MOST OF OK AND
N TX. A FEW TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
FEW/FAR BETWEEN TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. BY
AFTERNOON...+SHRA WILL LIKELY COVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM KSPS TO
KOKC...BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN TO ROUGHLY 500-800 FT. OUTSIDE THIS
AREA...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE...AND PERHAPS LESS
EXTENSIVE.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY PRODUCING OUTFLOW THAT WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO IT THIS
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND WARM MOIST AIR IS FORCED NORTH OVER THE
COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WEAKEN OVER US...AND WILL DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY BY THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKING OVER. AS IS USUAL...THIS
WILL BRING HOT WEATHER BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
AND...WITH THE EXTREMELY WET GROUND...HUMIDITIES WILL BE RATHER
HIGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME
HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  78  63  80 /  60  80  80  50
HOBART OK         68  75  62  84 /  80  90  70  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  83  64  85 /  50  80  80  60
GAGE OK           61  72  59  81 /  90  70  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     64  76  63  78 /  90  70  70  40
DURANT OK         74  87  69  85 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ005>042-
     044>046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

25/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-072030-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALVA AND WOODWARD... TO ARNETT AND THEN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM HOLLIS AND HOBART... TO WEATHERFORD AND KINGFISHER... TO
PERRY OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES PONCA CITY...ENID AND CLINTON.

SOUTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...NORTH OF A SHAWNEE TO NORMAN...LAWTON AND
VERNON TEXAS LINE.

TIMING...
THROUGH 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WITHIN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS....
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH
LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.FLOODING....
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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