Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
507 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT/WEAK WAVE...PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...LIFTING NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ACROSS EASTERN PA AND SOUTHERN NJ THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.75
INCHES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR HAVE BEEN DETECTED
ACROSS SE PA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE TO ADDRESS HAZARD. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND LLJ...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...WITH EVEN SOME WEAK ROTATION ALONG WARM
FRONT/WAVE. SOUTHERN CT MAY BE THE PLACE TO WATCH AS THE WARM
FRONTAL/SURFACE WAVE MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT/WAVE...BEST LLJ/MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION BEFORE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. ISO-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...OR ALONG ANY THERMAL OR LINGERING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN VICINITY OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SW CT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE.

THEREAFTER...SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE AXIS
IS ALREADY EAST OF THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
ALONG THE LAGGING COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A
DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIRMASS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...BUT
A WEAKER BACKSIDE SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.

THEREAFTER...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SE FRINGE OF MEAN
TROUGHING THU AND FRI AS UPPER LOW SPINS NE THROUGH QUEBEC AND
EASTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE EVENING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FORCING...BUT THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER IN THE EVENING IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THU AND FRI AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW PROB OF A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND WAVE
TO THE SOUTH MAY MAKE A CLOSE RUN.

TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THIS EVE.

STRONG TO SVR TSTMS TRACKING THRU THE CITY AS OF 845Z. A LULL
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY THEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SOME SPOTS AROUND
700 FT. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR
SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KTEB
FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION VRB THIS MRNG DUE TO TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF THE ARPT THIS MRNG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE SUB SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FRONT END OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

WITH HIGH TIDE APPROACHING THIS MORNING...MINOR URBAN
AND LOW-LYING FLOODING IS EXPECTED...WITH A MODERATE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
AND WESTERN LI SOUND...THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
     176>179.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6
     AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/NV
HYDROLOGY...FIG/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-
020730-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-020730-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-020730-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NYZ067-010830-
ORANGE-
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ORANGE
COUNTY...

AT 332 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FALLSBURG TO HAVEN TO NEAR HIGH POINT...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLOOMINGBURG AROUND 340 AM EDT.
  WALDEN AROUND 415 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE PINE BUSH AND
SCOTCHTOWN.

LAT...LON 4150 7469 4150 7448 4157 7442 4160 7435
      4160 7433 4163 7426 4163 7425 4160 7425
      4159 7417 4129 7454 4136 7469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 221DEG 29KT 4173 7460 4154 7456 4134 7461

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-072>075-010845-
WESTERN UNION-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN
UNION-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN
BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-HUDSON-BRONX-NEW
YORK (MANHATTAN)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-ORANGE-ROCKLAND-NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-
401 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PASSAIC...UNION...
HUDSON...BERGEN...ESSEX...ROCKLAND...KINGS...NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE...BRONX...QUEENS AND RICHMOND COUNTIES...

AT 401 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST MILFORD TO NEAR UNION TO ROBERTSVILLE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ELIZABETH...WEST MILFORD AND POUGHKEEPSIE--NEWBURGH AROUND 405 AM
EDT.
  RINGWOOD...ORANGE AND UPPER GREENWOOD LAKE AROUND 410 AM EDT.
  NEWARK...HARRISON AND CALDWELL AROUND 415 AM EDT.
  BLOOMFIELD...WARWICK...SLOATSBURG...KEARNY...GREENWOOD LAKE AND
TOTTENVILLE AROUND 420 AM EDT.
  PASSAIC...LYNDHURST...RUTHERFORD...SECAUCUS AND UNION CITY AROUND
425 AM EDT.
  PATERSON...RIDGEFIELD...HUGUENOT AND TETERBORO AROUND 430 AM EDT.
  HACKENSACK...MONROE...TODT HILL...FORT LEE...HAWTHORNE...
HARRIMAN...MORNINGSIDE HEIGHTS AND HARLEM AROUND 435 AM EDT.
  BAYONNE...BERGENFIELD...PARAMUS...RIDGEWOOD...ENGLEWOOD...ORADELL
AND PORT RICHMOND AROUND 440 AM EDT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4059 7421 4060 7438 4072 7440 4097 7428
      4104 7450 4109 7450 4120 7437 4123 7442
      4149 7405 4102 7392 4058 7392 4057 7401
      4070 7404 4071 7403 4067 7410 4059 7406
      4050 7425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 224DEG 30KT 4113 7444 4070 7432 4034 7433

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
509 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CTZ005-NYZ068-070-011000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-PUTNAM-
509 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFIELD...
PUTNAM...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER AND EASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 509 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MAHOPAC...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BREWSTER AND LAKE CARMEL AROUND 515 AM EDT.
  DANBURY...BETHEL...BROOKFIELD AND NEW FAIRFIELD AROUND 530 AM EDT.
  NEWTOWN AROUND 540 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 4166 7349 4165 7349 4164 7350 4153 7345
      4150 7344 4151 7339 4149 7337 4146 7330
      4128 7371 4119 7383 4137 7395 4140 7395
      4140 7396 4144 7398 4149 7393 4153 7353
      4167 7352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0909Z 234DEG 38KT 4136 7371