Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ML MUCAPES BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES...BUT MOST OF
THE INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPERING OFF. AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
IMPACTED WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND 1 INCH...AND A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY
SPREADING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH THE LINGERING WARM
FRONT...SHOULD HELP REGENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE...WITH
LIKELY POP FOR ALL OF NYC METRO AND CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT LIKELY TO CAT POP FOR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WED MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...BEST MOISTURE AXIS APPEARS TO
SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION. SO UNCERTAINTY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN TERMS OF AMOUNT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WELL INLAND...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STILL
A MARGINAL CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE PIVOTING EAST OF
THE REGION. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE LAGGING COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING AIR MASS.

HIGHS ON WED WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...TO
LOWER 80S MOST ELSEWHERE...TO MID/UPPER 80S IN NYC AND NE NJ.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT...AT
LEAST OUTSIDE OF NYC...WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF MOISTURE TRIGGERING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL LOWER POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IS PREDICTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARM FRONT S OF LI WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS MRNG. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVE.

SCT-BKN AROUND 1500 FT THIS MRNG. SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD TIL AROUND 15-17Z WHEN DRY AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VFR TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHWRS AND/OR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS EVE RIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS HOWEVER ATTM.

SE FLOW VEERS TO THE SSW THIS MRNG...THEN SW FLOW AFT 15Z. GUST
POTENTIAL GREATEST AFT 17Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TNGT BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.LATE WED NGT...VFR WITH NW FLOW GENERALLY BLW 10KT.
.THU...VFR WITH LGT W FLOW. SEA BREEZES LIKELY.
.FRI...VFR WITH WINDS VEERING FROM THE NE TO THE ESE. SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
.SAT...LOW PRES WILL TRACK S OF THE REGION. IF THE LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH...MVFR OR LWR POSSIBLE WITH -RA. WINDS GENERALLY N.
.SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR SHORE WINDS IN THE NY BIGHT AND HARBOR CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE LOWER 20S.

OCEAN SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA SEAS BY WED EVE. OTHERWISE QUIET
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY TSTMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. BASIN AVG OF RAIN IS
AROUND A HALF INCH...BUT LOCALLY 1 INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. MOST
LIKELY THREAT WILL BE FOR MINOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT THERE IS A
LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH APPROACHING FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
DURING THE LATE EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND WESTERN LI SOUND...MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-
020730-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-020730-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-020730-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
321 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NYZ067-010330-
ORANGE-
1051 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 1050 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER HIGH POINT...OR NEAR
MATAMORAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDDLETOWN...PORT JERVIS...GOSHEN...MATAMORAS AND UNIONVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4150 7448 4152 7447 4140 7427 4128 7453
      4136 7470 4139 7471 4140 7474 4143 7474
      4143 7476 4145 7476 4146 7475 4149 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 228DEG 13KT 4132 7470

MPS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

NYZ067-010830-
ORANGE-
332 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ORANGE
COUNTY...

AT 332 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FALLSBURG TO HAVEN TO NEAR HIGH POINT...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLOOMINGBURG AROUND 340 AM EDT.
  WALDEN AROUND 415 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE PINE BUSH AND
SCOTCHTOWN.

LAT...LON 4150 7469 4150 7448 4157 7442 4160 7435
      4160 7433 4163 7426 4163 7425 4160 7425
      4159 7417 4129 7454 4136 7469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 221DEG 29KT 4173 7460 4154 7456 4134 7461