Special Marine Warning 13, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
420 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
ON THURSDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL 900 PM.

AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SW PA THRU CENTRAL NY STATE MVS
SE...HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP AND MV RAPIDLY
EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LOW PROB OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL END AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SE BEHIND THIS FRONT.

FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WED THRU WED
NIGHT AS HIGH PRES MVS EAST TOWARD AND OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MAINLY ZONAL H5 FLOW THU INTO FRI WILL GIVE WAY
TO A DIGGING TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL RIDGE
OUT WEST. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS STILL LEADING TO VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK
OF SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE WEAKENING ON THU AS THE FIRST
WAVE OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. POPS INCREASE THU
NIGHT AND TAPER FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY FRI WITH THE LOW FORECAST
TO TRACK S OF LONG ISLAND. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL
LATER FRI INTO FRI EVE AS THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS AND THE NEXT ONE
APPROACHES. EC/CMC ARE FURTHER SUPPRESSED THAN THE GFS WITH THIS
WAVE AND KEEP THE AREA DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT. DIDN'T WANT TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS DURING THIS TIME SINCE THE GFS IS STILL
INDICATING RAIN...JUST LOWERED THEM TO LOW CHC.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXIMA APPROACH FOR SUN WITH A
BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS. SFC LOW AGAIN PASSES S OF LI WITH SLIGHT
TRACK DIFFERENCES. A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY BUT COULD HAVE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUN EVE AND TUE.

HIGH TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON THU...AND THEN HAVE THEM
FORECAST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRES AND CLOUD COVER THEY
COULD BE WARMER THAN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 20Z...ONE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS IS PASSING N OF NYC
METRO...WITH IMPACTS LIMITED TO KHPN/KBDR. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH...BUT HAVE LEFT IN
MENTION OF VICINITY THUNDER MAINLY BETWEEN 22-24Z FOR ANY ISOLD-SCT
CONVECTION THAT COULD STILL FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

GUSTY SW FLOW 10-15G20-25 KT SHOULD VEER W AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
KT THIS EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...THEN SHIFT NW
10 KT OR LESS LATE THIS EVENING AFTER COLD FROPA.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DIRECT TSTM
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DIRECT TSTM
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DIRECT TSTM
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DIRECT TSTM
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DIRECT TSTM

IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD STILL POSSIBLE FOR ANY DIRECT TSTM
IMPACTS EARLY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...VFR.
.THU...VFR.
.THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS.

SW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY
AND FOR THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
AT LEAST 34 KT ALONG WITH FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THU WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF A WAVE OF
LOW PRES BEGINS THU NIGHT. THE TREND IS CURRENTLY A MORE SUPPRESSED
TRACK...SO SCA CONDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST UNTIL SAT...AND
WOULD PRIMARILY BE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS DIMINISH ON
SUN...BUT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRIMARILY MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THU
NIGHT THROUGH SUN...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACKS OF THE
WAVES OF LOW PRES ARE UNCERTAIN WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GC
HYDROLOGY...GC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-242000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-242000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
352 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
KT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
537 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTVILLE               41.44N  72.12W
06/23/2015                   NEW LONDON         CT   NWS OFFICE

            NUMEROUS TRESS DOWN ALONG ROUTE 82

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
539 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                40.85N  74.29W
06/23/2015                   ESSEX              NJ   NWS OFFICE

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 32

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
540 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                41.60N  72.14W
06/23/2015                   NEW LONDON         CT   NWS OFFICE

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 32

&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
545 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONROE                  41.36N  73.20W
06/23/2015                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF
            TOWN... SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
547 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANDY HOOK              41.42N  73.28W
06/23/2015                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN ACROSS TOWN

&&

JE