Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS New York, NY

246 
WWUS51 KOKX 231903
SVSOKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
303 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

NJC003-031-NYC071-087-231930-
/O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-150623T1930Z/
PASSAIC NJ-BERGEN NJ-ROCKLAND NY-ORANGE NY-
303 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR PASSAIC...NORTHWESTERN BERGEN...ROCKLAND AND ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER HAMBURG...OR 9 MILES WEST OF WEST MILFORD...MOVING EAST
AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PATERSON...WAYNE...MIDDLETOWN...WEST MILFORD...RIDGEWOOD...RAMSEY...
RINGWOOD...POMPTON LAKES...SUFFERN...PORT JERVIS...MONROE...WALDEN...
WARWICK...GOSHEN...SLOATSBURG...HAWTHORNE...BLOOMINGDALE...CHESTER...
MONTGOMERY AND GREENWOOD LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4154 7413 4088 7409 4088 7426 4093 7429
      4097 7428 4100 7430 4103 7442 4102 7443
      4105 7445 4104 7450 4107 7449 4109 7450
      4120 7437 4136 7469 4144 7476 4145 7473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 261DEG 50KT 4116 7456 

$$

JC

040 
WWUS51 KOKX 231928
SVSOKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

NJC003-031-NYC071-087-231937-
/O.EXP.KOKX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-150623T1930Z/
PASSAIC NJ-BERGEN NJ-ROCKLAND NY-ORANGE NY-
328 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PASSAIC...NORTHWESTERN
BERGEN...ROCKLAND AND ORANGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WILL MOVE OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA SOON. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4154 7413 4088 7409 4088 7426 4093 7429
      4097 7428 4100 7430 4103 7442 4102 7443
      4105 7445 4104 7450 4107 7449 4109 7450
      4120 7437 4136 7469 4144 7476 4145 7473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 261DEG 50KT 4116 7456 

$$

JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS IT SLIDES EAST. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK NEAR
THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL 400 PM.

AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SW PA THRU CENTRAL NY STATE MVS
SE...HVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONT TO DEVELOP AND MV RAPIDLY
EAST TOWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTS TO
DESTABILIZE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LOW PROB OF
TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED FOR POTENTIAL WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE MID AND UPPER
90S THIS AFTN...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END
TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND RAIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FORECAST. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH
DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF WAVES WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THIS LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF LOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CLOUDS...PERIODS OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS HAS ALL THE
LOWS TRACKING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE
STABLE SIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT DAY WITH STRONG AFTERNOON CONVECTION...

INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHING FROM EASTERN PA HAS WEAKENED
AND SHOULD NOT POSE AS BIG A THREAT AS INDICATED BY 15Z AMD.
UNSCHED AMD FORTHCOMING TO DOWNPLAY THIS. THERE IS STILL HOWEVER
POTENTIAL FOR LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...DURING THE 19Z TO 23Z TIME FRAME.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

A GENERAL S FLOW 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
GRADUALLY VEER...BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NW 5-10 KT THIS
EVENING AFTER COLD FROPA.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED...VFR. W-NW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE LATE DAY
AND AT NIGHT.
.FRI-SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

SW WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. SW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ON THE
OCEAN THRU EVENING...WHILE 25 KT GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ON NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. AN SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THRU THIS EVENING MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STRONGEST OF THE LOWS PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRIMARILY MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM
THU THROUGH SUN...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACKS OF THE
WAVES OF LOW PRES ARE UNCERTAIN WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GC
HYDROLOGY...GC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-240800-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
356 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-240800-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
356 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
KT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.