Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. DEVELOPING LINE OF
CONVECTION RESIDES JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT. HELICITY VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST SPC INPUT WILL
PLACE ANOTHER TOR WATCH SO AS TO EXTEND THE CURRENT ONE EASTWARD.
FOR THE MOST PART...STORMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST HAVE BEHAVED
AND HAVE REMAINED SUB SEVERE. BUT...WITH HEATING AND INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE...THE APPROACHING FRONT MAY BE GREETED WITH HIGHER SFC
CAPES. LCL'S ARE PLENTY LOW ENOUGH FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...BEST HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF NASHVILLE.
THE CONVECTION WILL END ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA BY 11 PM TONIGHT.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS. 925 MB WINDS STILL LOOK SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE
CONTINUATION OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THOUGH THE PERIOD OF
ADVISORY REACHED CRITERIA MAY BE RATHER BRIEF THIS EVENING...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY.

MOVING ON...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS...UNDER
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TOMORROW...WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

TOMORROW NIGHT/EASTER SUNRISE...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED FROST
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE PLATEAU
AND LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. FOR THAT REASON...WILL
REISSUE THE SPS. WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TO RETURN FOR
SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND
THE PATTERN SETS UP WITH MIDDLE TN RESIDING IN THE WARM AND HUMID
SECTOR. THE FORCING DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT WE WILL SEE A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE UPPER JET AND THAT WILL LEAD TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WE WILL SEE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIG ACROSS THE WEST. AS
SOME DEGREE OF COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE...OUR SFC CAPES WILL BE ON
THE RISE. SO...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...FROPA ACTIVITY...WHICH IS THE USUAL CATALYST
FOR ORGANIZED SPRING SEVERE ACTIVITY...IS NOT INDICATED...AFTER
TONIGHT...FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THOSE CAPES HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DO GET STRONGER AS HIGH TEMPS APPROACH 80 DEGREES.

NOTE...I AM GOING TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE ZONES RIGHT NOW AS THE
NEW WATCH HAS JUST BEEN UPDATED IN OUR GRAPHICS. THE NPW FOR THE
WIND ADVISORY IS GOING TO BE REISSUED AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      42  60  36  68 /  60   0   0  05
CLARKSVILLE    38  60  34  66 /  30   0   0  10
CROSSVILLE     40  55  32  63 /  80   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       43  62  36  67 /  60   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   45  63  36  65 /  60   0   0  10
WAVERLY        38  61  35  66 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
507 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING OVER ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 10 PM CDT TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS BRIEF FLOODING DUE TO TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS OF THIS INTENSITY COULD BREAK TREE
LIMBS EVEN BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PATCHY FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. THOSE WITH
TENDER VEGETATION MAY WANT TO CONSIDER EITHER COVERING VULNERABLE
PLANTS OR BRINGING THEM INDOORS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
221 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             4 NE WHITE HOUSE        36.50N  86.62W
04/03/2015  M1.00 INCH       SUMNER             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500421

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
250 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-040900-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...
LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
250 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

......FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MID STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THE PATCHY FROST COULD LAST A BIT LONGER. THOSE WITH TENDER
VEGETATION MAY WANT TO CONSIDER TAKING PRECAUTIONS...AND EITHER
COVER PLANTS OR BRING THEM INDOORS.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
256 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             3 NW WHITE HOUSE        36.49N  86.70W
04/03/2015  E0.88 INCH       ROBERTSON          TN   TWITTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500422

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

TNZ005-006-023>026-032130-
CHEATHAM-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-STEWART-
352 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DICKSON...HOUSTON...
HUMPHREYS...MONTGOMERY AND STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 350 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF TENNESSEE RIDGE...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN AND AROUND HOUSTON COUNTY AIRPORT...TENNESSEE RIDGE...
ERIN...CUMBERLAND CITY...SLAYDEN...VANLEER...CUNNINGHAM AND CHEATHAM
DAM SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3650 8713 3597 8720 3606 8798 3612 8793
      3617 8792 3619 8795 3622 8796 3631 8796
      3635 8798 3640 8803 3645 8805

07