Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINEAR MCS IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. DO
EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD...AND THEN THE
QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE RELATED BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON CHANCE POPS FROM
ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO REASSESS AFTER IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
NOCTURNAL MCS. WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE TO WORK
WITH...SUPERCELLS AND THE KITCHEN SINK OF SEVERE WEATHER TYPES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FROM KAEL TO KEAU AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE IT WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING...FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM
WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO A DRIER REGIME WITH ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIFICALLY WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS...WITH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. SO ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...A VERY SEASONABLE SUMMER
DAY. ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE
THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH TIED TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND ALSO TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP COULD SPLIT CENTRAL
MN/WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH...SO COULD SEE SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK A FEW SHORTWAVES BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST SIGNAL AFTER WEDNESDAY/NIGHT IS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TAKING A QUICK GLANCE AT THE FINISHED FORECAST...IT
MAY SEEM LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR A WET
WEEK...BUT JUST TO REITERATE THAT ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY/NIGHT...THE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS PWATS GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MATURE MCS MOVING ACROSS SRN MN MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING. SEE A
WAKE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH THOSE
STRONG WINDS LOOK TO STAY SOUTH OF THE MPX TERMINALS. THIS WAKE
LOW WILL LEAD TO CHAOS IN THE WIND FIELDS THIS MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH. TRIED TO ESTIMATE HOW WINDS WILL TURN AT
TAFS BASED ON WHAT OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DONE...SO DID STEER AWAY FROM
THE LAV UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN NW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TIMING IN TAFS WAS PRETTY GOOD FOR CURRENT STORMS AND MAIN CHANGE
THERE WAS TO LIMIT THUNDER MENTION AT NRN TERMINALS. HRRR
INDICATING WE MAY SEE STORMS REDEVELOP AROUND 18Z...WITH STORMS
POSSIBLY IMPACTING ERN MN INTO WRN WI. FOR NOW...HAVE A VCSH FOR
NOW AT EAU...BUT WILL REASSESS THAT THREAT MORE WHEN WE GET BEHIND
CURRENT SYSTEM.

KMSP...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT TURNED
WINDS THROUGH THE NORTH BASED ON THE IDEA OF A LOW PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF MSP IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO HAVE A LINE APPROACHING
THE FIELD FROM THE SOUTH AND MONITORING THAT CLOSELY FOR THE NEED
TO FOR AN AWW FOR STRONG WINDS. RIGHT NOW...TMSP VELOCITY DATA
INDICATES MSP SHOULD BE FINE. IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE STORMS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RIGHT NOW...THAT THREAT LOOKS BETTER
EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ073>075-082-
     083-091-092.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ076-077-
     084-085-093.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
449 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
231000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
449 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

THE FIRST WILL BE THIS MORNING. A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE COULD BECOME SEVERE AS WELL...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY 10 AM.

BEHIND THE MORNING LINE...A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN PERIODICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LOW FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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