Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
240 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINEAR MCS IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. DO
EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD...AND THEN THE
QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE RELATED BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON CHANCE POPS FROM
ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO REASSESS AFTER IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
NOCTURNAL MCS. WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE TO WORK
WITH...SUPERCELLS AND THE KITCHEN SINK OF SEVERE WEATHER TYPES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FROM KAEL TO KEAU AND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE IT WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY SPEAKING...FOLLOWING THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM
WE SHOULD TRANSITION TO A DRIER REGIME WITH ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
A FEW SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIFICALLY WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS...WITH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. SO ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...A VERY SEASONABLE SUMMER
DAY. ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90. THEREFORE
THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH TIED TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND ALSO TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE TWO AREAS OF PRECIP COULD SPLIT CENTRAL
MN/WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH...SO COULD SEE SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK A FEW SHORTWAVES BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST SIGNAL AFTER WEDNESDAY/NIGHT IS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TAKING A QUICK GLANCE AT THE FINISHED FORECAST...IT
MAY SEEM LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR A WET
WEEK...BUT JUST TO REITERATE THAT ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY/NIGHT...THE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS PWATS GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LOCAL MODELS DEPICT TWO AREAS OF
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS WC/CENTRAL/SC MN BY 7-9Z...AND EC MN
BY 10-12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MN BY SUNRISE. THERE IS ALSO AN INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT
STRONG EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONCE IT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY 15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS ON THE INITIAL TSRA COMPLEX. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH BREEZY WNW/NW WINDS DEVELOPING
BY THE AFTN.

KMSP...

SAME SCENARIO AS BEFORE AS A COMPLEX OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE
AIRPORT FIELD BETWEEN 12-14Z. SCATTERED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
12Z...BUT THE MAIN STORM WILL OCCUR AROUND 13Z. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS TSRA COMPLEX. MVFR
CIGS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE AWAY TO VFR AND GUSTY WNW WINDS BY
THE AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW TO W AT 5-10 KT.
WED...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SE 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MNZ045-220900-
KANABEC-
338 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KANABEC COUNTY
THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

AT 337 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WARMAN...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF HINCKLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNIFE LAKE AND WARMAN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4599 9306 4598 9307 4598 9313 4595 9315
      4592 9323 4592 9325 4608 9338 4616 9322
      4616 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 240DEG 49KT 4605 9321

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MNZ073-074-221000-
BROWN-REDWOOD-
421 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BROWN AND REDWOOD
COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM CDT...

AT 420 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TRACY...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...MORGAN...WALNUT GROVE...LAMBERTON...WABASSO...
COMFREY...SANBORN...MILROY...LUCAN...CLEMENTS...REVERE AND WANDA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4445 9559 4446 9491 4411 9488 4411 9510
      4419 9510 4420 9512 4420 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 267DEG 40KT 4431 9555

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
424 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MNZ074-075-082>085-091>093-221000-
WATONWAN-FARIBAULT-BROWN-WASECA-BLUE
EARTH-FREEBORN-STEELE-NICOLLET-MARTIN-
424 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN STEELE... NORTHEASTERN MARTIN...BLUE
EARTH...FARIBAULT...WATONWAN...BROWN... FREEBORN...WASECA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES...

AT 423 AM CDT...A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DARFUR TO MINNESOTA LAKE TO NEAR
NORTHWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANKATO...ALBERT LEA...NEW ULM...NORTH MANKATO...ST. JAMES...SLEEPY
EYE...BLUE EARTH...LAKE CRYSTAL...EAGLE LAKE...WELLS...MADELIA AND
JANESVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 28.
 INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 173.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4363 9406 4397 9483 4445 9487 4409 9360
      4376 9305 4351 9304 4350 9389
TIME...MOT...LOC 0923Z 211DEG 37KT 4411 9481 4383 9385 4346 9330

LS