Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Mobile, AL

366 
WWUS54 KMOB 232015
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
215 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALC025-232024-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-151223T2045Z/
CLARKE AL-
215 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3227 8744 3225 8742 3224 8739 3220 8736
      3220 8733 3214 8728 3214 8725 3212 8726
      3208 8719 3205 8717 3184 8762 3187 8762
      3188 8767 3199 8767 3200 8763 3201 8762
      3213 8762 3213 8752 3226 8752 3227 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 228DEG 40KT 3201 8764 

$$

ALC131-232045-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-151223T2045Z/
WILCOX AL-
215 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR WESTERN WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 214 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER VINELAND...OR
8 MILES NORTHEAST OF THOMASVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINE HILL...YELLOW BLUFF...BOYKIN AND CATHERINE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 8744 3225 8742 3224 8739 3220 8736
      3220 8733 3214 8728 3214 8725 3212 8726
      3208 8719 3205 8717 3184 8762 3187 8762
      3188 8767 3199 8767 3200 8763 3201 8762
      3213 8762 3213 8752 3226 8752 3227 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 228DEG 40KT 3201 8764 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BUTTS

698 
WWUS54 KMOB 232027
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
227 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALC131-232045-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-151223T2045Z/
WILCOX AL-
227 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 226 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CATHERINE...OR
15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CATHERINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3227 8744 3225 8742 3224 8739 3220 8736
      3220 8733 3214 8728 3199 8749 3206 8762
      3213 8762 3213 8752 3226 8752 3227 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 228DEG 40KT 3211 8751 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BUTTS

128 
WWUS54 KMOB 232043
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
243 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALC131-232053-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-151223T2045Z/
WILCOX AL-
243 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM CST...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3227 8744 3225 8742 3224 8739 3220 8736
      3220 8733 3214 8728 3199 8749 3206 8762
      3213 8762 3213 8752 3226 8752 3227 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 228DEG 40KT 3211 8751 

$$

BUTTS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1227 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES. BANDS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. SFC WINDS WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS WELL...SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG...GENERALLY REMAINING MVFR
TO IFR BUT COULD DROP TO PERIODS OF LIFR TO VLIFR NEAR THE COAST.
12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...MORNING CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY MOVING FURTHER INLAND
AT MIDDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES OUT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. SFC OBS INDICATING THAT THE WARM FRONT
IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET AND LOW 70 DEWPOINTS HAVE SURGED INTO SE MS...SW AL...AND
THE FL PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES CLIMBING TO 500-1000 J/KG OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH 1500-2000
J/KG ACROSS INLAND SE MS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE
INCREASING 850 MB JET OF 50-55KT WILL AID 0-1KM SRH OF 200-400
MS/S2...LIKELY HIGHEST OVER FAR INLAND SW AL/SE MS.

GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING PRIMED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BECOME RATHER MEAGER IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S
SHORTWAVE AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX QUICKLY EJECTS
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM JACKSON
MS NOW INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL COME ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BANDS. SUCH CONVERGENCE BANDS
CAN ALREADY BE SEEN DEVELOPING OVER SE MS ON RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG SOME OF THESE BANDS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SE MS. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH ON IF ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION CAN
INITIATE ALONG THESE BANDS IN THE PRESENCE OF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
LAYER FORCING AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR MID LEVEL CAPPING.
OBVIOUSLY...IF CONVECTION DOES INITIATE...IT WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE VERY RAPIDLY WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES. JUST
HOW FAR INTO THE EVENING THE THREAT LASTS WILL DEPEND ON THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...THE OVERALL
THREAT REMAINS LIMITED AND THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COULD BE FAIRLY
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION. WITH THE OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WANT TO LEAVE THE
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE IN OUR THREAT GRAPHIC FOR THOSE AREAS
FOR THE TIME BEING. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...MONITORING THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AT MIDDLE BAY
PORT...BUT SEEM TO BE SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND NOW
DROPPING FROM AROUND 3 MILES TO 1.5 MILES DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR
OR SO AND NOW CURRENTLY DOWN TO ABOUT A HALF MILE. WHILE OTHER VSBY
REPORTING LOCATIONS AROUND/ON THE BAY ARE STILL SHOWING VSBYS IN THE
3 TO 5 MILE RANGE...THESE WILL LIKELY LOWER AS WELL TODAY...AND WE
WILL BE ISSUING A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVSY FOR THE BAY AND THE SOUND
HERE SHORTLY. THE PATTERN OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE COOL WATERS OF MOBILE BAY AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE TIME PERIODS WHERE
VSBYS WILL NOT BE BELOW 1/2 MILE...WILL PROBABLY GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
THE ADVSY THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. OTHERWISE MARINE PRODUCTS LOOK TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEPLY MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BETWEEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS STATES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN LA THROUGH SOUTHWEST AL. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED FROM COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE INTERIOR NW FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SOUTH CENTRAL AL WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS
AVAILABLE...BUT SO FAR THE STRONGER CELLS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED POSITIONED WELL
OFFSHORE.

THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM SW TO
NE AFTER 9-10 AM AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A LIKELY CHANCE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL TODAY... WHERE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL AVERAGE 40-45 KNOTS. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 F ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA TO A MORE
IMPRESSIVE 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
AL. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR...INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200- 300 M2/S2 WILL BRING A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL OVER
SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SW AL. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR W/NW. WHILE WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS NEAR THE COAST...THE
EXPECTED NATURE LOOKS BRIEF AND INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MAY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65
AND NEAR THE COAST. A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST AT LEAST INTO THE
EVENING GIVEN AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT...AND KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING. /21

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A SERIES OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROF
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND INTERACT WITH AN OLD REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...POSSIBLY FORMING SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED GENERALLY WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY
SHIFT TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
PUSHING FURTHER TO THE NORTH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ON
THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
POPS THEN TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOWING THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE
BASED CAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG CHRISTMAS EVE BUT 0-1 KM
HELICITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AT 100 M2/S2 SUGGESTING SOME STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON CHRISTMAS
EVE...WITH EVEN WARMER HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 80 INLAND. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
ABOUT 2 DEGREES BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS AT MOBILE AND PENSACOLA...AND
MAY TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD OF 77 AT MOBILE ON CHRISTMAS. LOWS WILL
BE RATHER MILD AND IN THE MID 60S CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES EVOLVES INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST STATES ON SATURDAY...WHICH PROGRESSES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH MONDAY USING THE PREDOMINATE
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/CMC/NAEFS/UKMET...THEN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY INCREASE TO CHANCE TO GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THEN
TRENDING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...THEN TRENDING COOLER TO THE
50S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY THEN SUBSIDES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK PARTICULARLY IN BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>632.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
838 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-241445-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
838 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH OR AREAL
FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY TODAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-241445-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
838 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALZ058-231600-
CRENSHAW AL-
932 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CRENSHAW IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 1000 AM CST...

AT 932 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUTLEDGE TO DOZIER TO NEAR
SANFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUVERNE...             BRANTLEY...            RUTLEDGE...
DOZIER...              GLENWOOD...            PETREY...
LAPINE...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3149 8619 3144 8625 3146 8628
      3153 8628 3145 8640 3152 8640 3153 8643
      3165 8648 3166 8645 3176 8645 3197 8628
      3196 8619 3189 8617 3179 8620 3179 8615
      3166 8615 3162 8618 3162 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 217DEG 63KT 3167 8644 3152 8637 3134 8641

BUTTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
932 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALZ058-231600-
CRENSHAW AL-
932 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CRENSHAW IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 1000 AM CST...

AT 932 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUTLEDGE TO DOZIER TO NEAR
SANFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUVERNE...             BRANTLEY...            RUTLEDGE...
DOZIER...              GLENWOOD...            PETREY...
LAPINE...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3149 8619 3144 8625 3146 8628
      3153 8628 3145 8640 3152 8640 3153 8643
      3165 8648 3166 8645 3176 8645 3197 8628
      3196 8619 3189 8617 3179 8620 3179 8615
      3166 8615 3162 8618 3162 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 232DEG 48KT 3167 8644 3152 8637 3134 8641

BUTTS

...CORRECTED STORM MOTION...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
951 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALZ051-MSZ067-231645-
CHOCTAW AL-WAYNE MS-
951 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CHOCTAW IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 1045 AM CST...

AT 950 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LISMAN TO NEAR NEEDHAM TO 9
MILES SOUTH OF CRANDALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTLER...              LISMAN...              SILAS...
PENNINGTON...          GILBERTOWN...          TOXEY...
NEEDHAM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3218 8801 3209 8804 3205 8812
      3201 8811 3198 8806 3195 8808 3195 8812
      3193 8805 3190 8813 3182 8818 3177 8816
      3174 8862 3188 8852 3190 8847 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 225DEG 51KT 3222 8838 3200 8843 3184 8854

BUTTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1123 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW GRAND BAY         30.55N 88.38W
12/23/2015                   MOBILE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES ACROSS THE ROAD AT FORT LAKE RD AND GASTON LOOP RD.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0648 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N THEODORE            30.58N 88.18W
12/23/2015                   MOBILE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON OLD PASCAGOULA RD. NEAR
            CARROL PLANTATION RD. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 WSW MIDTOWN MOBILE    30.66N 88.23W
12/23/2015                   MOBILE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING GRELOT RD AT SCHILLINGER. TIME ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

0700 AM     HAIL             6 SSW DOWNTOWN MOBILE   30.63N 88.10W
12/23/2015  E2.00 INCH       MOBILE             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            2 INCH HAIL REPORTED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA. SIZE ESTIMATED
            FROM VIEWER PHOTO.

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 S CHICKASAW           30.68N 88.07W
12/23/2015                   MOBILE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING REPORTED AT ANN AND GOVERNMENT STREETS. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RROGERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1229 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALZ057-058-231915-
BUTLER AL-CRENSHAW AL-
1229 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...EASTERN BUTLER AND CRENSHAW IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL
115 PM CST...

AT 1227 PM CST...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED 8
MILES WEST OF RUTLEDGE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF LUVERNE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

LAT...LON 3153 8644 3152 8658 3159 8669 3196 8653
      3196 8641 3205 8640 3205 8638 3201 8631
      3197 8630 3197 8623 3194 8618 3189 8617
      3179 8620 3179 8615 3173 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 218DEG 58KT 3171 8646

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
111 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ALZ054-231945-
WILCOX AL-
111 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WESTERN
WILCOX IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 110 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR YELLOW
BLUFF...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMDEN...              YELLOW BLUFF...        BOYKIN...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3220 8733 3218 8732 3216 8729 3214 8728
      3215 8727 3214 8725 3212 8726 3212 8725
      3210 8723 3208 8719 3207 8719 3206 8718
      3205 8718 3205 8714 3183 8734 3183 8745
      3189 8756 3220 8735
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 214DEG 46KT 3191 8742

BUTTS