Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE... WINDS DROP OFF AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WILL GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING'S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1220 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-270430-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1220 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES
NORTH OF ORLANDO. THE STORMS WILL BE FAST-MOVING AT 40 TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A FEW TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ORLANDO IN THE
PRESENCE OF A MARGINAL RISK TODAY. THE ADDED STORM INTENSITY IS
DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH FROM NORTH FLORIDA
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...TEAMED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOU LOCATION...ACT QUICKLY SINCE THE
STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER FAST.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST AT
45 KNOTS AND MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AND MOVE TOWARD THE INTRACOASTALS...AND THEN OFFSHORE TO PERSIST
SEAWARD. DO NOT LET THESE FAST MOVING STORMS GET BETWEEN YOU AND
SAFE HARBOR. ALWAYS WEAR APPROVED LIFE JACKETS WHEN ON THE WATERS
SINCE WINDS AND SEAS ARE OFTEN HIGHER NEAR STRONG STORMS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE HAZARD FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. ONLY ENTER THE
WATER NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC CREATING A CONCERN FOR CAUTIONARY BOATING CONDITIONS
BEYOND 20 MILES FROM THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THESE WATERS.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GUSTY LOW LEVEL AND TRANSPORT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES
MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO MID WEEK AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
WATERS AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. A FEW PERIODS OF STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES NORTH FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES NORTH OF ORLANDO.

AM/DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1009 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

FLZ141-261500-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-
1009 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

AT 1006 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BUNNELL...MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT
APPROACHES INTERSTATE 95 AND TOWARD THE COAST.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAYTONA BEACH...ORMOND BEACH...SOUTH DAYTONA...HOLLY HILL AND
ORMOND-BY-THE-SEA.

LAT...LON 2919 8098 2918 8098 2926 8104 2938 8109
      2936 8109 2921 8102 2921 8101 2920 8102
      2920 8101 2918 8100 2918 8130 2919 8130
      2926 8133 2927 8115 2941 8116 2943 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 270DEG 49KT 2942 8132

DWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1107 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

FLZ041-044-141-261600-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-
1107 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EDT...

AT 1103 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM ASTOR AND LAKE GEORGE...TO NEAR DELAND...TO NEAR
ORMOND BEACH AND DAYTONA BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAYTONA BEACH...PORT ORANGE...ORMOND BEACH...DELAND AND NEW SMYRNA
BEACH.

LAT...LON 2909 8093 2908 8094 2906 8091 2907 8091
      2897 8085 2897 8166 2905 8166 2906 8164
      2928 8164 2933 8166 2937 8146 2940 8142
      2926 8142 2927 8115 2941 8116 2943 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1503Z 269DEG 47KT 2929 8124

DWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
121 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

FLZ045>047-053-141-144-147-261815-
OSCEOLA FL-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-
ORANGE FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-
SEMINOLE FL-
121 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN
BREVARD...ORANGE...SOUTH VOLUSIA...NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 117 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR DISNEY...TO ORLANDO AND KISSIMMEE...TO NEAR
THE TOWN OF CHRISTMAS AND TITUSVILLE. OTHERS WERE NEAR MAYTOWN AND
OAK HILL. THE STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...KISSIMMEE...SANFORD...TITUSVILLE AND APOPKA.

LAT...LON 2851 8195 2867 8154 2872 8141 2896 8085
      2846 8052 2879 8120 2834 8068 2814 8145
      2835 8166 2835 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 264DEG 39KT 2843 8125

DWS