Small Craft Advisory for Winds 10, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LARGE MID LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE LARGE
WEATHER COMPLEX THAT WAS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AND PART OF THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND AND ANY GROUND
MOISTURE IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAY BREAK. BUT IS
DEPENDENT UPON ANY DECOUPLING LATE NIGHT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAYS WEATHER TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT
NORTH TO ABOUT A 20 PERCENT FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THICKER CLOUD
COVER NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND
MORE IMPULSED RIPPLING WEST TO EAST IN THE NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SUN.

MON NGT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WEAK WARM FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS BKN030-040CB TIL 26/00Z. BKN-OVC VFR TIL 26/08Z.
MVFR TEMPO IFR...BKN005... CEILINGS BETWEEN 26/08Z AND 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE'D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

				SAT 25 APR	SUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...	93			93
ORLANDO.........	97			98
MELBOURNE....... 	97			92
VERO BEACH......	95			95

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  69  82 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  72  90  72  84 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  71  92  73  81 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  71  92  73  84 /  20  20  10  50
LEE  73  86  72  83 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  74  89  72  82 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  89  73  82 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  93  71  85 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMME

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