Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2015
River Flood Warning 18, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this river flood warning at Dec 23, 2015, 6:03 AM CST for Lake County, Illinois; Kenosha County, Wisconsin. It took effect at Dec 24, 2015, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 23, 2015, 6:03 AM CST (12:03 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 24, 2015, 12:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Dec 28, 2015, 12:00 PM CST
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Lake County, IL, Kenosha County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Fox River near New Munster (NMSW3).
- Action stage
- 10 ft
- Minor stage
- 11 ft
- Moderate stage
- 13 ft
- Major stage
- 14 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05545750, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
553
WGUS43 KMKX 231203
FLWMKX
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
603 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
...The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a
flood warning for the following rivers in Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-240003-
/O.NEW.KMKX.FL.W.0018.151224T1800Z-151228T1800Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.151224T1800Z.151225T1800Z.151228T1200Z.UU/
603 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/sullivan has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 5:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and
continue to rise to near 11.8 feet by Friday early afternoon.the
river will fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.8 feet...This level is the 50 percent chance flood
meaning there is a 50 percent chance in any given year of the river
reaching this level. Floodwaters surround a home at the
intersection of Highway 50 and Highway W in the Wheatland area.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 am...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.07 05 AM 12/23 10.7 11.7 11.8 11.4
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.87 09 AM 12/16 0.25 11.80 12 PM 12/25
...Below is predicted 48 hour precipitation information
in 6 hour increments...
New Munster: 6 am-noon Wed Dec 23 0.24
New Munster: noon-6 pm Wed Dec 23 0.55
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Wed Dec 23 0.09
New Munster: midn-6 am Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Fri Dec 25 0.00
$$7 follow-up statements
028
WGUS83 KMKX 231540
FLSMKX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-240340-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0018.151224T1800Z-151228T1800Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.151224T1800Z.151225T1800Z.151228T1200Z.UU/
940 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 9:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and
continue to rise to near 11.8 feet by Friday early afternoon.the
river will fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.8 feet...This level is the 50 percent chance flood
meaning there is a 50 percent chance in any given year of the river
reaching this level. Floodwaters surround a home at the
intersection of Highway 50 and Highway W in the Wheatland area.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
$$
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 am...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.03 09 AM 12/23 10.7 11.7 11.8 11.4
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.85 11 AM 12/16 0.12 11.80 12 PM 12/25
...Below is predicted 48 hour precipitation information
in 6 hour increments...
New Munster: 6 am-noon Wed Dec 23 0.28
New Munster: noon-6 pm Wed Dec 23 0.31
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Wed Dec 23 0.16
New Munster: midn-6 am Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Fri Dec 25 0.00584
WGUS83 KMKX 232124
FLSMKX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-240924-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0018.151224T2200Z-151228T0000Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.151224T2200Z.151225T1800Z.151227T1800Z.UU/
324 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 3:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and
continue to rise to near 11.5 feet by Friday early afternoon.the
river will fall below flood stage by Sunday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet...Water is in the yards of some homes in the
Town of Salem, Village of Silver Lake, and Wheatland areas.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
$$
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 am...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.15 03 PM 12/23 10.6 11.4 11.5 11.1
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.78 03 PM 12/16 0.09 11.50 12 PM 12/25
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through February and for 24
hours into the future from March through August.
New Munster: 6 am-noon Wed Dec 23 0.28
New Munster: noon-6 pm Wed Dec 23 0.27
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Wed Dec 23 0.12
New Munster: midn-6 am Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Fri Dec 25 0.00733
WGUS83 KMKX 240313
FLSMKX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-241513-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0018.151224T1800Z-151227T1800Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.151224T1800Z.151225T1200Z.151227T1200Z.UU/
913 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and
continue to rise to near 11.4 feet by Friday morning.the river will
fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 11.4 feet...There are 2 inches of water over 77th
Street in the Wheatland area.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
$$
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 24 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Thu Fri Sat Sun
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.23 08 PM 12/23 11.2 11.4 11.2 10.8
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.66 10 PM 12/16 0.15 11.40 06 AM 12/25
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from September through February and for 24 hours into the future from
March through August.
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Wed Dec 23 0.12
New Munster: midn-6 am Wed Dec 23 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Wed Dec 23 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Wed Dec 23 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Wed Dec 23 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Dec 24 0.00299
WGUS83 KMKX 241124
FLSMKX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
524 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-242324-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0018.151224T1800Z-151227T1800Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.151224T1800Z.151225T1200Z.151227T1200Z.UU/
524 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 5:00 AM Thursday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
rise to near 11.4 feet by tomorrow morning.the river will fall
below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 11.4 feet...There are 2 inches of water over 77th
Street in the Wheatland area.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
$$
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 24 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Fri Sat Sun Mon
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.38 05 AM 12/24 11.2 11.4 11.2 10.8
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.55 07 AM 12/17 0.27 11.40 06 AM 12/25
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from September through February and for 24 hours into the future from
March through August.
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.12
New Munster: midn-6 am Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Fri Dec 25 0.00019
WGUS83 KMKX 241633
FLSMKX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-250433-
/O.EXT.KMKX.FL.W.0018.151226T0600Z-151226T1800Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.151226T0600Z.151226T0600Z.151226T1200Z.UU/
1033 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early
Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 10.8 feet...Floodwaters are near some homes along
Highway W in the Silver Lake area.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
$$
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 am...
Location stage stage stage/time Fri Sat Sun Mon
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.46 10 AM 12/24 10.8 11.0 10.7 10.3
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.50 11 AM 12/17 0.41 11.00 12 AM 12/26
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through February and for 24
hours into the future from March through August.
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Sat Dec 26 0.00783
WGUS83 KMKX 242140
FLSMKX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-250940-
/O.CON.KMKX.FL.W.0018.151226T0600Z-151226T1800Z/
/NMSW3.1.ER.151226T0600Z.151226T0600Z.151226T1200Z.UU/
340 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 3:00 PM Thursday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early
Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 10.8 feet...Floodwaters are near some homes along
Highway W in the Silver Lake area.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
$$
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 48 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 am...
Location stage stage stage/time Fri Sat Sun Mon
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.54 03 PM 12/24 10.8 11.0 10.7 10.3
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.52 02 PM 12/24 0.39 11.00 12 AM 12/26
Below is the latest predicted precipitation information in 6 hour
increments for the listed sites. This information is updated twice
daily - in the morning and evening. Precipitation prediction is for
48 hours into the future from September through February and for 24
hours into the future from March through August.
New Munster: 6 am-noon Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Sat Dec 26 0.00
HAHN984
WGUS83 KMKX 250250
FLSMKX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
850 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Illinois...Wisconsin...
Fox River Near New Munster affecting Lake and Kenosha Counties
&&
ILC097-WIC059-250320-
/O.CAN.KMKX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-151226T1800Z/
/NMSW3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
850 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Fox River Near New Munster.
* At 8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 10.6 feet
after midnight tomorrow.
* Impact...At 10.8 feet...Floodwaters are near some homes along
Highway W in the Silver Lake area.
&&
LAT...LON 4262 8832 4262 8813 4252 8812 4245 8810
4245 8827 4255 8825
$$
&&
River forecasts are available for some but not all river gaging
locations. The 7 day river forecast takes into account past
precipitation...soil moisture conditions etc..and predicted
future 24 hour basin-average precipitation.
(stages in ft.) Bank- Latest Forecast stages
- Flood full observed ...for 7 pm...
Location stage stage stage/time Fri Sat Sun Mon
New Munster 11.0 10.0 10.57 08 PM 12/24 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1
- Highest 24 hour change
- observed in river stage
- stage in (ft.) up to Highest stage
- the last latest observed forecast in
- 7 days stage next 7 days
New Munster 10.58 07 PM 12/24 0.36 10.60 12 AM 12/25
Below is predicted precipitation information in 6 hour increments
for the listed sites. This information is updated twice daily-morning
and evening. Precipitation prediction is for 48 hours into the future
from September through February and for 24 hours into the future from
March through August.
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Thu Dec 24 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: noon-6 pm Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: 6 pm-midn Fri Dec 25 0.00
New Munster: midn-6 am Sat Dec 26 0.00
New Munster: 6 am-noon Sat Dec 26 0.04
New Munster: noon-6 pm Sat Dec 26 0.04
HAHNWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 23, 5:53 AM CST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 5:53 AM CST, 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
553 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM KS TO WRN AND NRN WI FOR THIS
EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO CANADA LATE TNT. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD
DUE TO A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH SRN WI THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONG THETAE ADVECTION ON A
60 KT LLJ AFFECTS THE AREA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION DOES HAVE A LOW POTENTIAL OF BECOMING
SEVERE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED FAR SRN WI UNDER SLIGHT RISK
INCLUDING A 2-5 PERCENT TORNADO THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY THREAT HOWEVER
WITH THESE STORMS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES
ALONG AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS AND WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIND
GUSTS REACHING AT LEAST 45 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
END TOWARD LATE EVENING.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY FOR SE WI WHERE TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. STRONG COLD ADVECTION TNT
WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY SUNRISE ON THU.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MODELS SHOWING SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO
QPF AND MOISTURE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT SHEARED...PASSING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER ONE PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NAM IS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CANADIAN/NAM/ECMWF DRY. THE NAM THEN
BRINGS AN AREA OF QPF NORTHEAST CLIPPING THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME. THE
NAM IS MORE MOIST THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS DRIER OVERALL.
GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...WITH SOME CLOUDS HANGING AROUND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS
TIME.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY
SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS THEN SHOW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH SOME QPF TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM HOLDS BACK AND IS QUITE A BIT
DRIER TO THE WEST DURING THIS TIME.
SIDED AGAINST THE NAM AND CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW NORTH HALF AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ECMWF AND GFS TAKE THE BEST QPF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
MOSTLY RAIN ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...THOUGH
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IS SHOWN ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE MAIN QPF SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. POPS WERE
KEPT NEAR CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
LATER ON IF DRY TREND CONTINUES IN MODELS.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOMEWHAT.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TIMING OF NEXT STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS QUICKER WITH THE LOW TRACK. BOTH SHOW A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW ACCOMPANYING THE DEEP SURFACE LOW. KEPT
CONSENSUS BLEND OF POPS FOR THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. POPS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED LATER ON ONCE MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED WITH TIMING OF
THE LOW PASSAGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH COLDER
AIR TO BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT TIMES. STILL
A LONG WAY OFF AND JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FOG FROM 1/4 MILE TO 1 MILE AND CIGS OF 200-
400 FEET WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING UNTIL RAIN DEVELOPS BY LATE
MORNING. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS WILL RISE TO 1-3.5 KFT
FROM THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR. BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND VEER
TO WSWLY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE.
&&
.MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON DUE TO DENSE
ADVECTION FOG. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD THIN
OUT SOME OF THE FOG. THE FOG MAY NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND HIGH WAVES FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060-063>066-068>072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOODHazardous weather outlook, Dec 23, 4:55 AM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 455 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241100- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 455 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. A RELATIVELY WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A STRONG JET STREAM. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...THUS A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY PUSH A FEW RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BACK INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. LMZ643>646-241100- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 455 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. MILD AND MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FOG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD THIN OUT SOME OF THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HOWEVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. A GALE WARNING WILL THEN GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX MG
The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 8:01 PM CST | River Flood Watch | MKX | Lake | 6 days |
| Dec 23, 3:38 AM CST | Gale Warning | MKX | 29 hr | |
| Dec 23, 3:49 AM CST | Wind Advisory | MKX | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green, Green Lake and 12 more | 26 hr |
| Dec 23, 4:36 AM CST | Marine Dense Fog Advisory | MKX | 11 hr | |
| Dec 23, 12:36 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MKX | 39 min |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2015River Flood Warnings in Wisconsin, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.