Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1040 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1035 PM TUE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP COVERAGE AND
MENTIONED HVY RAFL AND GUSTY WINDS IN GRIDS FOR SRN/CNTRL AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH COAST IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH DURING THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP. TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT MID 80S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY INDUCES LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ON A STALLED SFC FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DPVA, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST INFLOW WILL
BRING ABOUT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGINNING LATER WED NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY.
MODEL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN
THRU THURSDAY BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
(WITH PRECIP WATER RISING WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES) AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHUD BE HELD IN THE 80S.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THRU
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING POSSIBLE UNTIL LOW LEVEL DRYING CAN OCCUR.
LOWER TEMPS/SFC DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NW AREAS LATE
BUT REMAINING MUGGY OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE EAST AND SFC HIGH AT
THE SFC, A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY FOR THE NORMAL SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE.

BY TUESDAY, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS
SHORT WAVE SHARPENS THE EASTERN TROF. WILL PUSH POPS INTO LOW CHANCE
AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
AS OF 710 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NMRS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE OAJ AND EWN TERMINALS WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF TSRA THIS EVE. GUSTY WINDS
TO 30 KT WILL BE ASSOC WITH STG TSRA. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTH IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SO WILL NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...INTERVALS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
LATER WED NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES OFF THE COAST THU EVENING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING AS LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. OUTSIDE
ANY LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS, PREDOMINATE VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 710 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. CONT SCA FOR SRN
CNTRL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PASSING OFF THE SOUTH COAST
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL VEER TO WEST LATE TONIGHT THEN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME SE AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NE AS THE
LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT. MODERATE NE WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

WEEKEND BOATING WEATHER FEATURES TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT E/SE
WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/HSA
MARINE...JAC/BTC/HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-230015-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-230015-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ080-081-092>094-220245-
MAINLAND HYDE-PAMLICO-JONES-CRAVEN-BEAUFORT-
1005 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PAMLICO...EAST CENTRAL
JONES...WESTERN MAINLAND HYDE...CENTRAL BEAUFORT AND CENTRAL CRAVEN
COUNTIES...

AT 1004 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELHAVEN TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AURORA FERRY
TERMINAL TO NEAR RIVER BEND...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BERN...TRENT WOODS...BELHAVEN...AURORA FERRY TERMINAL...BAYVIEW
FERRY TERMINAL...SWAN QUARTER FERRY TERMINAL...FAIRFIELD HARBOUR...
BAYBORO...ALLIANCE...AURORA...BRIDGETON...STONEWALL...VANDEMERE...
MESIC AND PANTEGO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3537 7631 3513 7673 3515 7654 3511 7658
      3511 7656 3509 7662 3509 7659 3508 7660
      3508 7700 3515 7706 3515 7708 3508 7702
      3507 7736 3529 7699 3569 7670 3569 7634
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 264DEG 47KT 3559 7666 3531 7685 3513 7715

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ046-047-081-103-220245-
MAINLAND HYDE-TYRRELL-OUTER BANKS DARE-WESTERN DARE-
1007 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MAINLAND
DARE...CENTRAL OUTER BANKS DARE...EASTERN MAINLAND HYDE AND
SOUTHEASTERN TYRRELL COUNTIES...

AT 1006 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS 15 MILES WEST OF
HATTERAS ISLAND FISHING PIER...OR 49 MILES SOUTH OF GRANDY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WANCHESE AND BODIE ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE.

LAT...LON 3527 7552 3564 7589 3537 7606 3535 7630
      3565 7634 3575 7605 3574 7605 3567 7604
      3570 7614 3565 7603 3578 7598 3586 7557
      3578 7554 3580 7565 3578 7556 3577 7554
      3577 7557 3571 7571 3574 7550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 264DEG 47KT 3553 7573

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1018 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W COMFORT             35.01N  77.53W
07/21/2015                   JONES              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON THE ONSLOW/JONES COUNTY LINE.
            RADAR ESTIMATED TIME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1500283

CQD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1032 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ098-220315-
ONSLOW-
1032 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ONSLOW COUNTY...

AT 1031 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MAPLE HILL...OR 11
MILES NORTHEAST OF BURGAW...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...NEW RIVER STATION...CAMP LEJEUNE CENTER...SWANSBORO...
SNEADS FERRY AND HOLLY RIDGE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN NEWPORT.

LAT...LON 3448 7758 3471 7768 3472 7743 3464 7737
      3461 7745 3455 7734 3455 7733 3457 7734
      3458 7739 3460 7738 3464 7732 3472 7740
      3472 7714 3471 7714 3467 7715 3470 7718
      3466 7715 3463 7716 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 271DEG 31KT 3462 7775

DAG