Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FCST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONT ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND
ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH COAST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH DURING THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP. TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT MID 80S
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY INDUCES LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ON A STALLED SFC FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DPVA, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST INFLOW WILL
BRING ABOUT A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGINNING LATER WED NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY.
MODEL RAINFALL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN
THRU THURSDAY BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
(WITH PRECIP WATER RISING WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES) AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHUD BE HELD IN THE 80S.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND
MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS THRU
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING POSSIBLE UNTIL LOW LEVEL DRYING CAN OCCUR.
LOWER TEMPS/SFC DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO NW AREAS LATE
BUT REMAINING MUGGY OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE EAST AND SFC HIGH AT
THE SFC, A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY FOR THE NORMAL SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE.

BY TUESDAY, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS
SHORT WAVE SHARPENS THE EASTERN TROF. WILL PUSH POPS INTO LOW CHANCE
AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
AS OF 710 PM TUE...ISOLD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID-EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF
TSRA THIS EVE. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTH IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ENOUGH DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...INTERVALS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
LATER WED NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES OFF THE COAST THU EVENING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING AS LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW. OUTSIDE
ANY LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS, PREDOMINATE VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & WED/
AS OF 710 PM TUE...WILL EXPAND 7 FT SEAS FOR CNTRL COASTAL WATERS
WITH DIAMOND BUOY REPORTING 7 FT SEAS CURRENTLY...NO SIG CHANGES
ON UPDATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...PASSING OFF THE SOUTH COAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO WEST
LATE TONIGHT THEN NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN MOVE OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOME SE AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 KTS AHEAD OF THE LOW THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NE AS THE
LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT. MODERATE NE WINDS AROUND
15 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS FRIDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

WEEKEND BOATING WEATHER FEATURES TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT E/SE
WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JAC/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/HSA
MARINE...JAC/BTC/HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-230015-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-230015-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ045>047-080-081-220200-
MAINLAND HYDE-TYRRELL-WASHINGTON-WESTERN DARE-BEAUFORT-
901 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND DARE...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...MAINLAND HYDE...EASTERN BEAUFORT AND
SOUTHERN TYRRELL COUNTIES...

AT 900 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BELHAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SWAN QUARTER FERRY
TERMINAL...KILKENNY...GUM
NECK...ENGELHARD...FAIRFIELD...SCRANTON...AND SWINDELL ROCK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3537 7606 3539 7625 3533 7627 3532 7627
      3542 7635 3534 7634 3536 7642 3536 7637
      3546 7642 3537 7647 3540 7653 3580 7647
      3580 7605 3568 7604 3569 7611 3570 7614
      3565 7603 3580 7599 3580 7582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 275DEG 30KT 3561 7646

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
917 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

NCZ045-080-081-220200-
MAINLAND HYDE-WASHINGTON-BEAUFORT-
917 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND HYDE AND NORTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTIES...

AT 917 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BELHAVEN...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF RIVER ROAD...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELHAVEN AND PANTEGO.

LAT...LON 3568 7648 3554 7651 3553 7653 3554 7654
      3547 7652 3548 7656 3551 7659 3555 7659
      3553 7661 3556 7666 3555 7668 3553 7663
      3551 7665 3550 7663 3549 7662 3550 7666
      3551 7666 3554 7688 3571 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 280DEG 31KT 3562 7676

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