Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND
A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
FORECAST IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
HOWEVER, BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING AHEAD OF IT THE RIDGE
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER MEXICO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER FLORIDA.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE AT 2 PM SHOWS THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM TODAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP OVER
THE INTERIOR AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE METRO AREAS LATER
IN THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
HAVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. A SMALL INVERSION
PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOWER MOISTURE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY COULD DELAY OR DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY.

NO CHANGES ARE APPLIED AT THIS TIME TO THE RIP CURRENT FORECAST. THE
PALM BEACH COAST CONTINUES UNDER A MODERATE RISK. THE REST OF THE
EAST COAST BEACHES CONTINUES UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. THE MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE
WEAKENED WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... (ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015) LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE THAT IS PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH INLAND-
MOST SUBURBS ON BOTH COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MODELS
DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TOWARD TERMINALS...WITH BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES SITES HAVING HIGHEST POPS. VCTS IS SUFFICIENT
FOR NOW. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...CALMING OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT
LAND BREEZE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NAPLES...CURRENT WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  67  86 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  84  72  85 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            70  85  72  85 /  30  30  20  20
NAPLES           69  83  69  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
622 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
081030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
622 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS INTERIOR AND EAST INTO EVENING...
...SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING SWELL ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FLOODING: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF URBAN STREET FLOODING WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WATERSPOUTS: SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS AS STORMS MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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