Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MID LEVEL LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND
A LOW NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
FORECAST IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
HOWEVER, BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY THE LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING AHEAD OF IT THE RIDGE
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER MEXICO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER FLORIDA.

THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE AT 2 PM SHOWS THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM TODAY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP OVER
THE INTERIOR AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE METRO AREAS LATER
IN THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
HAVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. A SMALL INVERSION
PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOWER MOISTURE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY COULD DELAY OR DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TODAY.

NO CHANGES ARE APPLIED AT THIS TIME TO THE RIP CURRENT FORECAST. THE
PALM BEACH COAST CONTINUES UNDER A MODERATE RISK. THE REST OF THE
EAST COAST BEACHES CONTINUES UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. THE MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE
WEAKENED WITH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION... (ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015) LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE THAT IS PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH INLAND-
MOST SUBURBS ON BOTH COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MODELS
DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TOWARD TERMINALS...WITH BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES SITES HAVING HIGHEST POPS. VCTS IS SUFFICIENT
FOR NOW. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...CALMING OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT
LAND BREEZE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. FOR NAPLES...CURRENT WEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  67  86 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  84  72  85 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            70  85  72  85 /  30  30  20  20
NAPLES           69  83  69  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
423 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

FLZ071-072-072100-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
423 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND SMALL HAIL FOR CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* AT 422 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  OVER INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL...MOVING EAST AT
  20 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
  SMALL HAIL.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
  FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER
  IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PEMBROKE PINES...SUNRISE...WESTON...INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES
  BLVD...INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL...INTERSECTION
  I-75 AND U.S. 27...MILE MARKER 30 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...EAST TOLL
  GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SOUTHWEST RANCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2601 8071 2620 8069 2623 8035 2600 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 265DEG 15KT 2613 8061

BAXTER