Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1249 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDSOUTH ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S AS OF
10 AM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S RESULTING IN LATE
MORNING HEAT INDICES NEAR 100. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
THE HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE LATE JUNE. A ONCE DYING MCS CURRENTLY
OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT HAS THE MCS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AS IT
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A MOIST...
BUOYANT PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLE STORM
TRACK OVER THE MIDSOUTH... HOWEVER SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DISTURBANCE.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 OR GREATER OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SO HAVE EXPANDED HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND
WEAKEN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT EVER IS LEFT OF THIS FRONT
WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT SO THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
SO THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RATHER HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL AGAIN EXCEED 105 IN MANY AREAS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS WEDNESDAY
EVENING SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING REMAINING IN THE 70S. BY THURSDAY...WHAT LEFT OF THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 90S.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A LITTLE
EAST. THIS WILL HELP END ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SO SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED
105 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY 110 DEGREES SO HEAT ADVISORIES OR
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION
OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151930-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG
ARKANSAS TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL UP
TO AROUND ONE INCH.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...MOST NOTABLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER DUE TO THESE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY AGAIN RISE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
07/14/2015                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN IN PARAGOULD.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROOKLAND               35.90N 90.58W
07/14/2015  M81 MPH          CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            HAM OPERATOR MEASURED 81 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
307 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
07/14/2015                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   911 CALL CENTER

            18 WHEELER BLOWN OVER AT EXXON TRUCK STOP 3109 COMMERCE.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     TRUMANN                 35.67N 90.52W
07/14/2015  E68 MPH          POINSETT           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EST WINDS NEAR 68 MPH WITH POWER OUTAGE IN TRUMANN.

&&

ZDM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

ARZ028-035-036-048-TNZ048-049-088-089-142100-
MISSISSIPPI AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-TIPTON TN-
LAUDERDALE TN-SHELBY TN-FAYETTE TN-
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

AT 312 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
NEAR LEPANTO...MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS IT ENTERS THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA THROUGH 4 PM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS...
CRITTENDEN...SOUTHEASTERN CROSS...WESTERN TIPTON...SOUTHWESTERN
LAUDERDALE...SHELBY AND WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3515 9064 3564 8987 3537 8962 3500 8967
      3500 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 319DEG 50KT 3558 9038