Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET AT ALL 4 CLIMATE SITES AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO POOL INTO THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE ENTERED THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR CONVECTION
THAT IS THE RESULT OF WAA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A
DECAYING MCS FURTHER EAST. THE HRRR FORMS A LINE OF THESE TWO
DISTURBANCES AND CARRIES THEM SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO DIE AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AN EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE PRE STORM AIRMASS AIR MASS EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 4500-6500
J/KG. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
TODAY. THE WALNUT RIDGE AWOS STATION HAS ALREADY REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1935Z. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROHIBIT THE TYPE OF
TEMPS THAT WE SAW TODAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
DURING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO THE 90S ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME OPPRESSIVE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AT
THE 850 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN 22-23C. THAT CORRELATES TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S EACH DAY. CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
RETROGRADING WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS BY MID WEEK.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

VCTS POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/JBR MAINLY AFTER 14/20Z WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT JBR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION
OF SHRA/VCTS OUT AFTER 15/01Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS TONIGHT

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-151930-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG
ARKANSAS TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL UP
TO AROUND ONE INCH.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...MOST NOTABLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER DUE TO THESE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY AGAIN RISE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
436 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

TNZ050>054-089>091-142215-
HARDEMAN TN-MCNAIRY TN-HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-HAYWOOD TN-FAYETTE TN-
CROCKETT TN-CHESTER TN-
436 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

AT 434 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS 40 TO
50 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF BEMIS
TO NEAR CLOVERPORT TO NEAR WHITEVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HARDEMAN...MCNAIRY...SOUTHWESTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD...EASTERN FAYETTE...
SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT AND CHESTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3518 8842 3500 8865 3530 8928 3546 8909
      3570 8903 3548 8835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 295DEG 47KT 3560 8897 3543 8902 3526 8922

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
437 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

MSZ001>003-008-012-013-142215-
TATE MS-PANOLA MS-BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-DE SOTO MS-LAFAYETTE MS-
437 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR...

EASTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 435 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MILE AN HOUR WINDS WAS LOCATED NEAR LEWISBURG...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
OLIVE BRANCH...MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN TATE...NORTHEASTERN PANOLA...SOUTHERN BENTON...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO AND NORTHERN LAFAYETTE
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG WINDS.

LAT...LON 3479 9002 3491 8967 3457 8924 3451 8925
      3436 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 344DEG 37KT 3479 8978