Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. STARTING TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF AN AREA WHERE A
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT EAST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AFTER 4 PM CDT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS HAS
CREATED A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPE VALUES ALREADY
AROUND 2500 J/KG NUDGING UP THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA INTO MEMPHIS.
0-1KM SRH VALUES ARE AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...COULD SEE VALUES
ENHANCE A LITTLE BIT IF AND WHERE A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPS.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. THUS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF MEMPHIS. HOWEVER...MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
SQUALL LINE PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AROUND 9 PM CDT. THIS
LINE WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE COURSE
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LINE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN DIMINISHING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
DECREASES INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THREATS ESPECIALLY OVER AREA NORTH AND WEST OF
MEMPHIS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
ON FRIDAY AROUND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
NORTHWARD. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS DECENT. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BRINGING INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDSOUTH
KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RATHER HIGH EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE
AREA. THUS...NEXT WEEK COULD BE A WET WEEK. STAY TUNED.

KRM
&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH TEMPOS AT JBR BETWEEN 10/00-04Z...MEM
BETWEEN 10/01-05Z...MKL BETWEEN 10/02-06Z...AND TUP BETWEEN
10/04-08Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT AT JBR AND SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY S
WINDS WILL VEER NW/N WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DIMINISH TO 7-10
KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101900-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1152 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR EASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY THE LATER
EVENING HOURS. THIS LINE WILL PUSH EAST AFFECTING THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. REFER TO
THE LATEST PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.