Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Memphis, TN

December 28, 2015Tunica County, Mississippi; 6 counties in Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Dec 28, 2015, 5:41 AM CST for Tunica County, Mississippi; 6 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 28, 2015, 5:41 AM CST (11:41 UTC)
Expired: Dec 28, 2015, 6:30 AM CST
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Lee County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Tunica County, MS

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 28, 2:23 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 323 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1137 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 767 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 204 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 306 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.4
Supercell composite: 8.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Dec 28, 4:05 AM CST, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 4:05 AM CST, 1 hour 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
405 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL TX. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A 996MB PRESSURE
TROF FROM NEAR TEXARKANA...EASTWARD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS AREA TO NORTHEAST...ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE MIDSOUTH. 4 AM MIDSOUTH TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER NORTH MS AND SOUTHWEST TN...TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST
AR. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING...AS THE PARENT LOW REACHES A MIDDAY POSITION OVER SOUTHERN
MO.

4 AM REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE
LIFTING INTO THE MS DELTA. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WAS IMPRESSIVE...
WITH SFC-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...
MUCAPES WERE AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG...LIMITING A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT. 06Z NAM PROGGED IMPRESSIVE 850MB WARM SECTOR WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 75KTS...AND REAR INFLOW OF 60-70KTS THIS MORNING.
MOST OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...GIVEN THE
RAIN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOILS...DOWNED TREES COULD OCCUR WITH SUB-SEVERE
WINDS...BOTH CONVECTIVE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT DERIVED. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY
THROUGH 6 PM.

A NOTE REGARDING RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...KNQA DUAL POL
CC PRODUCT SHOWED THE 40+ DBZ ECHOES OVER EASTERN AR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MELTING PRECIP ALOFT...RATHER THAN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOLLOWING THE RAIN/S EXIT TODAY...DRIER...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
BRING IN A QUIET AND SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST MS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE.
RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER. DRY AND SEASONAL AREAWIDE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
WITH SEASONAL MID-WINTER TEMPERATURES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL TRANSISTION
TO A LARGER AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME VERY GUSTY. TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 28, 4:12 AM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
412 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-291215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
412 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY...
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
ALL THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

PWB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 28, 4:03 AM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

ARZ048-049-058-MSZ010-281045-
PHILLIPS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-LEE AR-COAHOMA MS-
403 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 445 AM CST FOR...

PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 402 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOLLY GROVE
TO NEAR CRUMROD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN PHILLIPS...WESTERN ST. FRANCIS...LEE AND CENTRAL COAHOMA
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3500 9115 3500 9105 3511 9104 3510 9079
      3447 9059 3407 9066 3412 9067 3412 9112
      3414 9108 3419 9109 3422 9106 3434 9106
      3434 9100 3447 9100 3447 9105 3473 9105
      3474 9110 3487 9110 3491 9112 3491 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 214DEG 49KT 3464 9115 3411 9107

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 28, 4:09 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Coahoma	51 min
Dec 28, 4:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Coahoma, Tunica	46 min
Dec 28, 5:51 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Panola, Quitman, Tallahatchie, Tate, Tunica and 1 more	39 min
Dec 28, 6:23 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Panola, Tate, Tunica	67 min
Dec 28, 7:30 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Benton, Marshall	45 min
Dec 28, 7:37 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Lafayette, Marshall	25 min
Dec 28, 7:56 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Lee, Pontotoc, Union	49 min
Dec 28, 8:11 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Benton, Tippah	49 min
Dec 28, 8:33 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Alcorn, Itawamba, Lee, Prentiss, Tippah	42 min
Dec 28, 8:34 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Monroe	41 min
Dec 28, 9:08 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Alcorn, Itawamba, Lee, Monroe, Prentiss, Tishomingo	52 min
Dec 28, 8:06 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Fayette, Haywood, Lauderdale	39 min
Dec 28, 8:37 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chester, Crockett, Hardeman, McNairy, Madison	53 min
Dec 28, 8:46 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Dyer, Gibson, Lake, Obion	44 min
Dec 28, 9:23 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chester, Hardin, Henderson, McNairy, Madison	52 min
Dec 28, 9:25 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Carroll, Gibson, Obion, Weakley	50 min
Dec 28, 10:09 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Benton, Carroll, Decatur, Hardin, Henderson, Henry and 1 more	66 min
Dec 28, 3:13 PM CST	River Flood Warning	MEG	Obion, Weakley	21 hr
Dec 28, 3:13 PM CST	River Flood Warning	MEG	Madison	45 hr
Dec 28, 4:03 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee, Phillips	42 min
Dec 28, 4:35 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	40 min
Dec 28, 4:39 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips	36 min
Dec 28, 5:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Lee, Poinsett, St. Francis	46 min
Dec 28, 7:10 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett, St. Francis	3 hr
Dec 28, 7:21 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi	3 hr
Dec 28, 7:26 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Mississippi	49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.