Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS Memphis, TN

December 28, 2015Craighead County, Mississippi County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Dec 28, 2015, 7:21 AM CST for Craighead County, Mississippi County, Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 28, 2015, 7:21 AM CST (13:21 UTC)
Expired: Dec 28, 2015, 10:15 AM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Craighead County, AR, Mississippi County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 470 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 234 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

137 
WGUS54 KMEG 281321
FFWMEG
ARC031-093-281615-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0124.151228T1321Z-151228T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
721 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 721 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
  AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  JONESBORO...MANILA...LAKE CITY...LEACHVILLE...BROOKLAND...
  MONETTE...CARAWAY...BLACK OAK...GARSON...MILLIGAN RIDGE...
  MANDALAY...GOOBERTOWN...BOYNTON...POPLAR RIDGE...LESTER...BIG
  LAKE...MANGRUM...PAWHEEN...BUCKEYE AND SOUTHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 9068 3597 9039 3598 9038 3600 9013
      3578 9015 3577 9073

$$

1 follow-up statement

597 
WGUS74 KMEG 281617
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

ARC031-093-281627-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-151228T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MISSISSIPPI AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-
1017 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3596 9068 3597 9039 3598 9038 3600 9013
      3578 9015 3577 9073

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 28, 5:49 AM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 5:49 AM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
549 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL TX. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A 996MB PRESSURE
TROF FROM NEAR TEXARKANA...EASTWARD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS AREA TO NORTHEAST...ROUGHLY
BISECTING THE MIDSOUTH. 4 AM MIDSOUTH TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER NORTH MS AND SOUTHWEST TN...TO THE MID 40S OVER NORTHEAST
AR. THIS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING...AS THE PARENT LOW REACHES A MIDDAY POSITION OVER SOUTHERN
MO.

4 AM REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE
LIFTING INTO THE MS DELTA. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WAS IMPRESSIVE...
WITH SFC-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2...
MUCAPES WERE AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG...LIMITING A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT. 06Z NAM PROGGED IMPRESSIVE 850MB WARM SECTOR WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 75KTS...AND REAR INFLOW OF 60-70KTS THIS MORNING.
MOST OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...GIVEN THE
RAIN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOILS...DOWNED TREES COULD OCCUR WITH SUB-SEVERE
WINDS...BOTH CONVECTIVE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT DERIVED. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY
THROUGH 6 PM.

A NOTE REGARDING RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...KNQA DUAL POL
CC PRODUCT SHOWED THE 40+ DBZ ECHOES OVER EASTERN AR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH MELTING PRECIP ALOFT...RATHER THAN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOLLOWING THE RAIN/S EXIT TODAY...DRIER...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
BRING IN A QUIET AND SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST MS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE.
RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER. DRY AND SEASONAL AREAWIDE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...
WITH SEASONAL MID-WINTER TEMPERATURES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

BROKEN TSRA LINE ON TRACK FOR MEM PASSAGE BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE TODAY. 06Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS PREVAILING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 28, 4:12 AM CST, 3 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
412 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-291215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
412 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY...
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
ALL THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

PWB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 28, 4:03 AM CST, 3 hours 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

ARZ048-049-058-MSZ010-281045-
PHILLIPS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-LEE AR-COAHOMA MS-
403 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 445 AM CST FOR...

PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 402 AM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOLLY GROVE
TO NEAR CRUMROD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN PHILLIPS...WESTERN ST. FRANCIS...LEE AND CENTRAL COAHOMA
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3500 9115 3500 9105 3511 9104 3510 9079
      3447 9059 3407 9066 3412 9067 3412 9112
      3414 9108 3419 9109 3422 9106 3434 9106
      3434 9100 3447 9100 3447 9105 3473 9105
      3474 9110 3487 9110 3491 9112 3491 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 214DEG 49KT 3464 9115 3411 9107

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 28, 4:03 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee, Phillips	42 min
Dec 28, 4:09 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Phillips	51 min
Dec 28, 4:35 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	40 min
Dec 28, 4:39 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lee, Phillips	36 min
Dec 28, 4:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Lee, Phillips, St. Francis	46 min
Dec 28, 5:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Lee, Poinsett, St. Francis	46 min
Dec 28, 5:41 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Poinsett, St. Francis	49 min
Dec 28, 5:51 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden	39 min
Dec 28, 6:23 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett	67 min
Dec 28, 7:10 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Mississippi, Poinsett, St. Francis	3 hr
Dec 28, 7:26 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Mississippi	49 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.