Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...IN
TIME FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR...SEPARATING MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
NORTH MS...AND MID/UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST AR. THIS
FRONT WAS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET CORE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT TO PUSH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH MS
AND WEST TN. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER NORTH MS AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR...AS LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REINTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.

HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WITH MINOR EXPIRATION TIME
ADJUSTMENT TO 6 AM SAT. THEREAFTER... HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA...ON INTO SE MO AND WEST KY BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...SATURDAY/S HIGH TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A 540DM 500MB CLOSED LOW
INTO WEST TX BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL COMBINE WITH A SAGGING COLD FRONT TO CREATE A HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH... LIKELY
ORIENTED ALONG THE MS RIVER SUNDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT...UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
A SECOND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
MS RIVER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL FRONTAL
POSITION...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED EASTWARD EXTENSION.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT THROUGH AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO MONDAY
MORNING. A QLCS MAY PRESENT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LOW/S EXIT MONDAY EVENING...A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING UPPER
LOW... DROPPING LATE WEEK DEWPOINTS EVEN FURTHER. MIDSOUTH WEATHER
WILL LIKELY FEEL A LITTLE MORE SEASONAL AS WE BRING IN 2016.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

LEADING EDGE OF TSRA WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE TUP VCNTY THIS
MORNING...AS MEM/MKL/JBR REMAIN NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT...UNDER
ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TS.

SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH TO JUST SOUTH OF AN MEM/MKL
LINE BY 00Z...WITH IFR LIKELY IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR JBR BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH FLIGHT
CAT IMPROVING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE TSRA ISN/T OCCURING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
232 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MSZ002-003-TNZ089-090-250900-
BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-
232 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 300 AM CST FOR...

NORTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

AT 232 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR MT PLEASANT...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLLIERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN BENTON...NORTHERN MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN
FAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3476 8958 3495 8971 3517 8926 3488 8913
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 240DEG 48KT 3492 8958

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
706 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MSZ017-023-024-251345-
ITAWAMBA MS-CHICKASAW MS-MONROE MS-
706 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR...

SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
EAST CENTRAL CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 706 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW WREN...OR 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKOLONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA...EAST CENTRAL CHICKASAW AND MONROE
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3377 8872 3381 8872 3381 8874 3399 8885
      3409 8863 3409 8855 3413 8854 3430 8818
      3390 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 1306Z 239DEG 47KT 3390 8869