River Flood Warning 111, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1056 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO CANCEL NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND
ADJUST POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SHARPENED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MOVED VERY SLOWLY SOUTH SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL BENEATH TRAINING CONVECTION AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS MAINTAINED AND VEERS. IN ADDITION...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FURTHER NORTH...A COOL AIRMASS HAS BECOME REINFORCED AS NORTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS AIRMASS HAS WORKED IN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
EARLIER FLOOD WATCH AREA...THEREFORE THESE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE WATCH AS THE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINFALL HAS
ENDED. IN ADDITION...THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE STABLE IN THIS
REGION AND SINCE BETTER FORCING HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...THE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE LOWER. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT SHOULD REDEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SURGING BACK
INTO MUCH OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH...IN
TIME FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT ROUGHLY
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR...SEPARATING MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
NORTH MS...AND MID/UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST AR. THIS
FRONT WAS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC ASCENT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET CORE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT TO PUSH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH MS
AND WEST TN. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER NORTH MS AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR...AS LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REINTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.

HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WITH MINOR EXPIRATION TIME
ADJUSTMENT TO 6 AM SAT. THEREAFTER... HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIFT
NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA...ON INTO SE MO AND WEST KY BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...SATURDAY/S HIGH TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE 25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A 540DM 500MB CLOSED LOW
INTO WEST TX BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL COMBINE WITH A SAGGING COLD FRONT TO CREATE A HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH... LIKELY
ORIENTED ALONG THE MS RIVER SUNDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT...UNDER STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
A SECOND FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
MS RIVER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL FRONTAL
POSITION...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED EASTWARD EXTENSION.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT THROUGH AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO MONDAY
MORNING. A QLCS MAY PRESENT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LOW/S EXIT MONDAY EVENING...A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING UPPER
LOW... DROPPING LATE WEEK DEWPOINTS EVEN FURTHER. MIDSOUTH WEATHER
WILL LIKELY FEEL A LITTLE MORE SEASONAL AS WE BRING IN 2016.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

LEADING EDGE OF TSRA WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE TUP VCNTY THIS
MORNING...AS MEM/MKL/JBR REMAIN NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT...UNDER
ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TS.

SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH TO JUST SOUTH OF AN MEM/MKL
LINE BY 00Z...WITH IFR LIKELY IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO NEAR JBR BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH FLIGHT
CAT IMPROVING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE TSRA ISN/T OCCURING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CHESTER-DECATUR-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HENDERSON-MCNAIRY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1102 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-261915-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1102 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM CHARLESTON TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO FAR SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.

THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WREN                    33.97N 88.60W
12/25/2015                   MONROE             MS   AWOS

            WATER UP TO SEVERAL HOUSES IN TOWN.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1155 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HOUSTON                 33.90N 89.00W
12/25/2015                   CHICKASAW          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON HUDDLESTON STREET.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1156 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 33.90N 89.00W
12/25/2015                   CHICKASAW          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER RUSHING OVER THE ROAD ON JEFFERSON STREET IN TOWN.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N HOUSTON             33.95N 89.00W
12/25/2015                   CHICKASAW          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER RUNNING OVER COUNTY ROAD 31 NORTH OF TOWN.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
113 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TREMONT                 34.23N 88.25W
12/25/2015                   ITAWAMBA           MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROADS ARE STARTING TO WASH OUT.

&&

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
115 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OKOLONA                 34.01N 88.75W
12/25/2015                   CHICKASAW          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CAR SUBMERGED.

&&

JAB