Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

It will be another active day across the area with the potential for
severe weather across SE New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon
and evening. A shortwave trough slowly progressing east across the
southwest CONUS will provide support for thunderstorm activity.
Morning clouds have not hindered destabilization much at all and
continue to break up across West Texas. Cumulus have started popping
up in the Davis Mountains along with some isolated storms. Good
moisture will be present east of the dryline with locations seeing
low to mid 60s dewpoints. Instability will also be good with a band
of ML CAPE values over 2000 j/kg along the NM/TX border southward
towards the Lower Trans Pecos. The environment should support
clusters of storms and some supercells with effective shear of 30-40
kts.  Expect storms to increase in coverage across the Davis
Mountains along with development moving across SE New Mexico and the
Upper Trans Pecos as the cap continues to weaken. Storms will
progress eastward across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
through the evening. Storms will be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.  The hail and wind threat should
decrease with the loss of daytime heating, but the threat for
localized flash flooding will continue due to the presence of high
moisture as PWAT values are between 1 and 2 inches.

Expect the wet pattern to continue over the next few days with the
weak upper level trough continuing its slow progression east. Main
forcing for activity will be the lee surface low and convergent
upslope flow across the Trans Pecos.  The high moisture will
continue and the potential for localized flash flooding caused by
heavy rainfall will be possible tomorrow and Monday.

A weak ridge tries to build from the west by mid week, which could
cut precip chances down a little.  Best chances for rain in the
extended will be in the mountains.  Some models suggest temps could
rise back above normal, but have opted to stay near normal for
now.

Arnold

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  92  69  87  /  60  30  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  71  86  /  60  30  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  98  67  93  /  20  20  20  40
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  71  91  /  40  20  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           70  91  70  94  /  60  30  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  86  65  84  /  10  10  10  40
HOBBS NM                   66  93  67  87  /  60  30  40  40
MARFA TX                   62  88  62  90  /  30  50  20  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  91  70  89  /  60  30  30  40
ODESSA TX                  70  91  70  89  /  60  30  30  40
WINK TX                    71  97  71  93  /  50  40  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

29/06

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 /223 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN OF WEST TEXAS SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOOD OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG BUT THE GREATER THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             14 SE CAPROCK           33.25N 103.54W
06/13/2015  E1.75 INCH       LEA                NM   STORM CHASER

            REPORTED ON SH 457

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             ALPINE                  30.36N 103.67W
06/13/2015  E1.25 INCH       BREWSTER           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WALL CLOUD EARLIER, NO FUNNELS.

&&

CMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ028-034-132330-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
455 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTH CENTRAL LEA AND SOUTHEASTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LEA
COUNTY AT 455 PM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 10364 3219 10329 3200 10354 3200 10382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 224DEG 25KT 3204 10367

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ028-132345-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
458 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARLSBAD NORTH
AT 458 PM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED
WITH THIS STORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARLSBAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 10386 3256 10382 3229 10416 3238 10459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 224DEG 25KT 3247 10417

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
603 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ029-033-132345-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
503 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF MCDONALD AT 503 PM
MDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 10319 3293 10327 3313 10367 3350 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 282DEG 12KT 3320 10354

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ081-132345-
BIG BEND AREA-
621 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF PANTHER JUNCTION
AT 622 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2944 10331 2962 10304 2933 10287 2927 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 235DEG 14KT 2939 10319