Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Low cigs still hanging on at KHOB while the rest of the terminals
have returned to VFR conditions. Similar to yesterday,
thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and affect many of
the TAF sites. These storms will likely contain gusty winds and
heavy rainfall which will reduce vsbys. Storms will move off to
the east this evening with low clouds possibly redeveloping by
morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SE surface winds underneath wly mid level flow will hold surface
mstr well to the w today, meanwhile plume of steep mid level LR's
will remain within the wly mid level flow. Any morning low clouds will
erode from w-e by the PM resulting in strong SB heating across the
Trans Pecos. Model consesus points to convective initiation INVOF Davis
Mtns (near Balmorhea) and we have no reason to disagree based on
thermodynamics/kinematics. Storms will also develop thru the NW-N in
assocn with weak mid level shrtwv trof. Severe storms will again be
possible with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kts and CAPES over 2000
J/KG. This will result in a relative minimum in PoPs across the
central PB, however a caveat is for outflow boundaries to increase
tstm potential within this area. Mid level flow weakens further
Sunday, but initiation will again be tied to the Trans Pecos, w
of FST, where convergent upslope flow occurs within seemingly
semi-permanent steep LR's. As such the Trans Pecos will be favored
for tstms into the evening (Lower Trans Pecos). GEFS/NAEFS
continue to support anomolously high mstr and heavy rain will still
be a concern. By the Monday the mid level trof axis that has been
to the west will move (slowly) into W TX Plains, caught between
subtropical ridge axes. This will maintain the chance of rain, and
may actually increase it? Thereafter the chance of rain will
slowly decrease as mid level trof axis slowly moves ewd as ridging
attempts to build in from the w. Although temps will be warming up
mid to late next week MEX may be a little too agressive.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

29

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 /223 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN OF WEST TEXAS SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOOD OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG BUT THE GREATER THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1148 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 AM     HAIL             3 W TARZAN              32.31N 102.03W
06/12/2015  E2.50 INCH       MARTIN             TX   PUBLIC

            A FEW TENNIS BALL AND EGG SIZE.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     HAIL             4 SE LOOP               32.88N 102.37W
06/12/2015  E2.50 INCH       GAINES             TX   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS BROKEN AND CROPS DAMAGED.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             3 W TARZAN              32.31N 102.03W
06/12/2015  E2.50 INCH       MARTIN             TX   PUBLIC

            A FEW TENNIS BALL AND EGG SIZE.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             18 ENE FORT STOCKTON    30.99N 102.61W
06/12/2015  E2.50 INCH       PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ058-074-131900-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
104 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT CAMP AT
104 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 10373 3081 10354 3077 10359 3071 10350
      3067 10348 3057 10419 3096 10426
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 253DEG 11KT 3081 10390

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

TXZ058-074-075-080-081-131945-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-
149 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EASTERN JEFF DAVIS...NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER...SOUTHERN REEVES AND WEST
CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOYAHVALE AT
148 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3112 10304 3025 10330 3062 10434 3106 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 297DEG 15KT 3075 10366