Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
515 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows drier air moving into West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/latest models advecting lwr dewpoints into the lwr
lvls from the west over the next 24 hours. Main concerns will be
low clouds/fog developing overnight at the ern terminals. KMAF
looks to be a given, considering 2+" of rainfall last night, and
saturated soils. Forecast soundings suggest LIFR cigs, and fog
development hopefully won't fall into a lwr category. KFST may see
MVFR cigs, but we've kept other terminals VFR for now, considering
expected drier air moving in.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
As of 1:30 pm CDT Thursday...have let most of the Flash Flood
Warnings expire as the heavy rain has ended. KMAF radar still shows
weakening showers...mainly in the Low Rolling Plains and the Eastern
Permian Basin. KMAF recorded 2.21 inches of rain early this morning
with the squall line...easily beating the old record (for October
22nd) of 1.67 inches set all the way back in 1931.

Water Vapor imagery and GOES High Density Winds show the Upper Low
responsible for the heavy rain lifting NE through Southern Colorado.
For this afternoon and evening, continued the Flash Flood Watch for
far eastern Permian Basin through midnight tonight. These areas
continue to report major flooding issues and these problems would
persist or potentially worsen with any additional development. Also,
anticipating some thunderstorm development this afternoon near the
Davis Mountains and Big Bend regions. These storms will be capable
of producing strong winds and brief heavy rainfall.

With the wet ground and clearing skies there could be fog/low clouds
across the Plains tonight into Friday morning. Friday will be a mild
day...depending on when the fog/low clouds burn off...but as the
upper level trof lifts east a cold front will swing south into West
Texas/Southeast New Mexico Friday night/Saturday. It looks like this
weekend will feature the coolest temps so far this season with
widespread lows in the 40s and afternoon highs in the 60s to lower
70s. Models are indicating a pretty decent pressure gradient with
the front so the winds could be gusty on Saturday...but should
remain below wind advisory criteria.

Flat ridging will bring mainly dry weather with warming temps Monday
through Wednesday next week. However...the pattern could get
interesting late next week into the following weekend. Even though
it is about a week away medium range models are showing another
closed low moving thru California into Arizona and Northern Sonora
with deep southwest flow into the area. This pattern could bring a
return of wet weather to the CWA. Future model runs will bring more
clarity to the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Glasscock...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry...Upton.

&&

44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-232000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
256 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 /156 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY ALONG
AND EAST OF A MCCAMEY...GARDEN CITY...COLORADO CITY...SNYDER LINE.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER SPOTTERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN CAN REPORT ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR
THIS EVENING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND