Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

036 
WGUS74 KMAF 221213
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
713 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

TXC383-461-221445-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-151022T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
REAGAN TX-UPTON TX-
713 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR
REAGAN AND UPTON COUNTIES...

AT 710 AM CDT...THE UPTON COUNTY S.O. REPORTED PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 
349 FROM 4 TO 7 MILES NORTH OF RANKIN WAS IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER.
AT 709 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST 
AT 20 MPH OVER UPTON AND REAGAN COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING 
1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES SO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS 
LIKELY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BIG LAKE...RANKIN...MIDKIFF...NORTH REAGAN FIRE STATION...BEST...
STILES...TEXON AND REAGAN COUNTY AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10221 3165 10211 3165 10127 3108 10127

$$

67

444 
WGUS54 KMAF 221421
FFWMAF
TXC383-461-221745-
/O.EXT.KMAF.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-151022T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
921 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND  HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  REAGAN COUNTY IN WESTERN TEXAS...
  UPTON COUNTY IN WESTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 918 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
  RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ADDITONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED
  TO CONTINUE. 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  BIG LAKE...RANKIN...MIDKIFF...NORTH REAGAN FIRE STATION...BEST...
  STILES...TEXON AND REAGAN COUNTY AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

REMAIN ALERT FOR FLOODING EVEN IN LOCATIONS NOT RECEIVING RAIN.
ARROYOS...STREAMS AND RIVERS CAN BECOME RAGING KILLER CURRENTS IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES...EVEN FROM DISTANT RAINFALL.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.
&&

LAT...LON 3108 10221 3165 10211 3165 10127 3108 10127

$$

12

670 
WGUS74 KMAF 221741
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

TXC383-461-221751-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-151022T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
REAGAN TX-UPTON TX-
1241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REAGAN AND UPTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 1245 PM CDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED
TO POSE A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3108 10221 3165 10211 3165 10127 3108 10127

$$

33

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the area
through Thursday morning then should start to diminish in
coverage by Thursday afternoon. Low ceilings and visibilities are
expected to decrease, especially within thunderstorms. Ceilings
should improve a little by early Thursday afternoon.  Winds will
generally be out of the southeast but will be somewhat variable.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/

UPDATE...

Will update ZFP product soon to incorporate WS 517 V/T 1200 AM
CDT/1100 PM MDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Hazards:

  * Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 pm CDT/6 pm MDT Thursday
    for all of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
  * Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms tonight, with large
    hail, high winds, frequent lightning, and a few tornadoes
    possible.
  * Record-setting heavy rainfall likely from southeastern New
    Mexico east across the Permian Basin tonight.

Impacts:

  * Flash flooding of arroyos, draws, and streams. Low water
    crossings and low stretches of roads impassible. Urban
    flooding likely, with many road closures expected. High water
    rescues are possible.
  * Damaging winds may down power lines, trees, and take roofs off
    buildings.
  * Large hail may strip trees of leaves, damage vehicles, and
    possibly damage roofs.
  * Tornado damage to buildings, power lines, and homes, with
    debris covering roads and delaying recovery efforts.
  * Frequent lightning may cause localized power outages, start
    tank battery fires, and be a hazard for first responders.
  * Heavy rainfall flowing into the Colorado River tributaries may
    cause flooding of nearby low-lying areas.

An approaching closed low presently over central AZ (the same
storm system that gave us heavy rainfall almost two weeks ago!)
will slowly progress east over the next 48-72 hours. Several
embedded jet streaks on the eastern half of this system are
responsible for ongoing small convection over the Permian Basin.
As one potent jet streak and associated short wave approach this
evening, instability, deep layer shear, and sufficient moisture
will come together to produce scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. My guess is that CI will occur either off the Davis
Mountains or east across central Pecos County within the next two
hours. A pronounced tongue of higher theta-e surface air extends
from Val Verde County northwestward into southeastern New Mexico.
Main threat will be from hail and damaging winds. However, the
shear profiles may support tornadogenic supercells where low level
winds are backed, i.e. upper Trans Pecos. As these storms move
north-northeastward, they should encounter less-favorable air.
However elevated storms are expected further north, across the
northern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. These
storms will be capable of producing hail and maybe damaging winds.

The threat then shifts to a heavy rain event, starting over the
western Permian Basin late tonight and shifting east during the
overnight hours. Between midnight and sunrise Thursday, a large
area of 1 to 3 inch rains are forecast along an axis extending
from Marathon through Fort Stockton...Midland/Odessa...and
Andrews/Seminole/Lamesa. This axis will shift east during the
morning hours, impacting the eastern Basin and the western Low
Rolling Plains, with rainfall amounts comparable to earlier
amounts to the west. By Thursday evening...southeastern New Mexico
will have picked up anywhere between an inch or two, while farther
east, in the Permian Basin, rainfall amounts of two to three
inches with isolated amounts greater than four inches are
expected. This rainfall event is highly anomalous for west Texas
and southeastern New Mexico, and may set records at many
locations.

The threat of thunderstorms and heavy rain shifts east toward the
Hill Country and north central Texas late Thursday into Friday.
There may be enough instablilty and moisture to gin up a few
thunderstorms, but the coverage and intensity will be nowhere near
what we're expecting overnight.

Thereafter, we can expect a drying trend. A cold front will pass
through southwestern Texas and southeastern New Mexico during the
morning hours Saturday, with a wind shift to the north and fall-
like temperatures forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Looks like
another front enters the picture sometime Tuesday. This will bear
watch as we could see moisture from the remains of now TS
"PATRICIA", now about 265 miles south of Acapulco, MX. Too early
to tell right now about increases in rain chances early next
week...stay tuned.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa
     Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio
     Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 /112 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.

HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE...COLORADO
RIVER...PECOS RIVER...AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES OF THESE RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND LOWER TRANS PECOS THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
EXCEED 4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODNG AND RIVER FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA BEING THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.

A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY AS WELL AND
PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS CAN REPORT ANY FLOODING THAT MAY OCCUR
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
10/22/2015                   ECTOR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING IN ODESSA.

&&

AKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
257 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
10/22/2015                   ECTOR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING IN ODESSA BETWEEN 230
            AND 250 AM CDT.

&&

AKL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
402 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

TXZ062-063-220945-
GLASSCOCK-MIDLAND-
402 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GLASSCOCK AND
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLAND COUNTIES...

AT 401 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTH OF MIDKIFF...
OR 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY...SAINT LAWRENCE AND BIGBY CORNER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. VISIBILITY WILL DROP NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3167 10182 3179 10189 3208 10152 3173 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 242DEG 22KT 3174 10182

67

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
10/22/2015                   MIDLAND            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            VEHICLE SUNMERGED IN HIGH WATER AT MULBERRY AND TILDEN
            ROADS.

&&

AKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
10/22/2015                   ECTOR              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            AT LEAST 16 HOMES WERE FLOODED IN ODESSA AROUND THE 3600
            BLOCK OF WALNUT, AND ON TOM GREEN BETWEEN 13TH AND 14TH
            STREETS. REPORTS BEGAN COMING IN BETWEEN 230 AND 300 AM
            CDT. THE CENTRAL FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED 3.7 INCHES OF
            RAIN IN THE LAST 4 HOURS.

&&

AKL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

TXZ052-053-221130-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-
543 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MITCHELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES...

AT 543 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COAHOMA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF BIG SPRING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLORADO CITY...WESTBROOK...CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR...LAKE COLORADO
CITY...COLORADO CITY AIRPORT AND LAKE COLORADO CITY STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 199 AND 216.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3210 10123 3222 10129 3251 10094 3219 10071
TIME...MOT...LOC 1043Z 231DEG 29KT 3219 10123

67