Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Short term concerns include potential for TSRA at HOB/PEQ/INK/FST
and have included TEMPO there thru 03Z-04Z to cover current radar
trends of storms slowly advancing e. Otherwise toward 08Z-09Z MVFR
CIGS are expected to develop and have included at all but CNM
until 15Z-16Z. More storms will be possible late Monday PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015/

UPDATE...
Sent a quick update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #300 for
southeast New Mexico and northwest portions of the Permian Basin
through 11pm CDT/10pm MDT tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A weak low pressure system will slowly drift east into the plains
with a trailing shortwave rotating around the backside of that low
will cross the region today bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms for parts of SE New Mexico and the northern Permian
Basin. A lee trough will allow southeast winds to keep good
moisture in place. Instability and deep layer shear is less than
it has been the last couple of days, but mid level rates remain
slightly above 7.0 C/km. This will keep a possibility for at least
some isolated severe storms today with hail, damaging winds and
localized flash flooding. Initiation will be off the higher terrain of
NM and parts of the Upper Trans Pecos with the help of daytime
heating and the approaching shortwave. Additional development
will occur in the Davis Mountains aided similarly by upslope flow
and daytime heating. The Lower Trans Pecos and northern Permian
Basin will be the focus into the evening hours as storms will
potentially grow upscale as they move east. Any potential for severe
weather will likely diminish with the loss of heating, but the
threat for some localized flash flooding will be remain with
Precipitable Water values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches.

A weak front will push through the Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon.
Believe it will stay north of the forecast area holding off rain
chances until later in the day.  The trend towards weaker upper
level flow will keep severe chances down heading into the early part
of the week.  A trough axis does remain across the region, which
will be enough to keep some chances of precipitation across West
Texas and SE New Mexico through Tuesday.  Rain chances will decrease
through the end of the week as the upper low moves off to the east
and an upper ridge begins to build in from the west.

A return to the mid to upper 90s for the majority of locations looks
likely as the ridge builds in by next weekend. There are indications
there could be some disturbances that will rotate around the ridge
in northerly flow aloft, but do not have much confidence in
keeping very high precip chances that far out. Will have to keep
an eye on the track of the tropical system in the gulf and the
potential for moisture to reach the area from Hurricane Carlos in
the Eastern Pacific to see how it may effect rain chances for our region.

Arnold

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
157 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 /1257 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE GREATER CONCERN
HOWEVER WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NMZ029-033-142300-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
430 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING NORTHERN LEA COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST LEA COUNTY AT 429 PM MDT...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 10315 3294 10376 3340 10375 3340 10373
      3357 10372 3357 10320
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 268DEG 28KT 3336 10357

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

NMZ028-033-034-142300-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
433 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL EDDY AND WEST CENTRAL LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 500
PM MDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LOCO HILLS AT 433 PM MDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 10360 3226 10369 3248 10427 3283 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 283DEG 26KT 3265 10407

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

TXZ058-059-142345-
LOVING-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
604 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN LOVING AND
NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF ORLA AT 603 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON...NORTHWESTERN LOVING AND
NORTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10424 3200 10391 3158 10378 3169 10427
      3191 10430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 255DEG 14KT 3184 10402

05